Waterfowl Population Status (2024)

[Buddy Boy]

Dear Waterfowlers:

I am responding to the excellent article "2024 Fall Flight Forecast" as published in the latest Delta Waterfowl magazine (fall issue) that was based upon the USFWS - Waterfowl Population Status (2024).

Mr. Kyle Wintersteen (Editor) and Mr. Paul Wait (Senior Manager of Communications, Delta Waterfowl) did an excellent job of condensing a 65 page USFWS document down to a few essential pages for us but this article again lacked any mention of our Tundra Swan populations.

Since the term "waterfowl" includes ducks, geese and swans I thought that I would provide you with a brief summary of our Tundra Swan populations (based upon the USFWS report). I have included the results of the range-wide (Continental Population) survey of Trumpeter Swans conducted in 2015 as explained below for your convenience. I submitted this brief summary to Mr. Kyle Wintersteen on October 08, 2024.

There are currently three (3) species of swans in North America but the Mute Swan is an invasive species and is essentially "non-migratory" in its behavior so it will not be included in my summary.

The Tundra Swan has two (2) distinct populations in North America and these populations may fluctuate significantly in size from year to year.

1) The Eastern Population of Tundra Swans has traditionally been the larger of the two populations and is annually surveyed Mid-Winter in its traditional wintering area (Maryland to North Carolina). There was a 53% drop in the number of birds surveyed in 2024 vs 2023 (64,400 vs 137,800) which was a 4% drop over its ten year average.

2) The Western Population of Tundra Swans has traditionally been the smaller of the two populations and is annually surveyed in the Spring in its traditional nesting area (Alaska). There was a 2% increase in the number of birds surveyed in 2024 vs 2023 (74,200 vs 72,600) which was a 6% drop over its ten year average.

Note: I would like to add a well known fact and a personal observation regarding the Eastern Population of Tundra Swans that should be considered with respect to this year's population survey. Given the fact that approximately 20% of this population (20,000 out of 100,000 birds) may migrate through the Long Point area of Ontario (based upon an article that I had read) and that I have observed an increase number of Tundra Swans "over wintering" in the Long Point area one has to consider that the entire population is no longer being surveyed.

The Trumpeter Swan has three (3) distinct populations in North America and these populations are surveyed every five (5) years ... the last survey being conducted in 2015 since the 2020 survey was canceled due to the COVID pandemic.

The range-wide (Continental Population) survey of Trumpeter Swans conducted in 2015 was a little different in that only "white swans" (adults and sub-adults) were counted. The 2015 total was 63,016 "white swans" which would probably be more than doubled the 2005 total if the 2015 cygnets were counted in the total.

1) The Interior Population was surveyed at 27,055 "white swans" in 2015 ... up from approximately 10,000 (including cygnets) in 2010.

2) The Rocky Mountain Population was survey at 11,721 "white swans" in 2015 ... up from approximately 10,000 (including cygnets) in 2010.

3) The Pacific Coast Population was survey at 24,240 "white swans" in 2015 ... about the same (including cygnets) as in 2010 and in 2005 ... this population has obviously reached the maximum carrying capacity for the habitat that is currently available for this population.

I hope that you have found this swan population summary informative as well as interesting. I hope that Delta Waterfowl will consider including our swan populations in their "2025 Fall Flight Forecast" next year.

Jerome Katchin, D.V.M.
Port Rowan, Ontario