It would appear that the madness that affects the Toronto real estate market has started to spread to outlying areas.
http://www.torontosun.com/2017/02/16...isis-situation
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It would appear that the madness that affects the Toronto real estate market has started to spread to outlying areas.
http://www.torontosun.com/2017/02/16...isis-situation
It's gone beyond nuts, and the funny thing a lot of people don't think, if I sell mine they'll have to buy another, usually higher price. when that bubble bursts, it will be time to buy at a extreme reduced rate. Up the interest rate a couple points and a lot won't make their payments. Another point, why do people imagine they all need 2000+ sq/ft homes when they can be happy in something smaller. Bigger house, more heating and electricity bills, never ends.
Maybe I should sell and sit on the money for a few years and wait for the crash. LOL
I loved the little 900 square foot bungalow that I owned 25 years ago. I would still be there if it were up to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fisherman
Don't laugh,it makes perfect sense if one is in that position. We bought 10 years ago for around $270K. Last week,two streets over,the exact same design house with a smaller lot went for $679K ($95K over asking). They're selling them to Toronto people desparate to get out the city. With foolishness going on in that city,I can't blame them. The downside is God help them if there's a real estate/economy crash because most people are mortgaged to the eyeballs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Species8472
The insanity has just continued, no different than when I said goodbye to the insanity of life in the GTA this time last year.
Looked at a number of places, as far east as Newcastle/Bethany. No different back then. I really knew just how insane things, people were when we found one place outside Port Perry we liked. It was reasonable and we were hoping in a tiny little pocket in the middle of nowhere it might not go insane.
It did. Forget the numbers
These young couples are also going in firm. given the bidding wars if their bank has only pre approved X, they are on the hook for anything else over and above...
No inspection ( could be bad, especially rural properties) Imagine finding some old Oil tank in the ground 6 momhts later or the foundation.....
No Septic ( could be very expensive)
No Well ( holy crap)
When and how will it all end?
who knows.
Even if rates stay low for a long time (and they could given things)
Think about how much Interest your losing over 10 years on mortgages of 500,000 -800,000
yeah we have certainly made a fine mess of things.
The place we did find. Not sure what I did right in life to have it drop in my lap. Tucked away in a tiny little pocket even I didnt know existed (helped a ton) and somehow miracoulsy no other bidders. It hit the market Friday, my offer was in only hours later...They still insisted on waiting the time they are allowed, and i get it, who wouldnt....But the gods smiled on me that day.
Mines a 1000 up and down, 62 x 140 lot, bought it in '83 for $49K, I'm not moving. And that way brand new.Quote:
Originally Posted by Species8472
Bought our place for 76K many moons back and it has just been appraised at over 600k...we are looking to downsize and move out Durham way but what's available out there it ridiculous....one we looked at last weekend went
100K over asking! Thank god we are mortgage free and will not be going into a mortgage situation...as we are
particular and can take our time we may just end up waiting out this boom! But who knows as we have a couple
places to go look at today!
BM
Its all "relative".
Theres a couple things occurring in Durham, that's not occurring elsewhere thats affecting the pricing but for the most part the insanity is everywhere inside the GTA, and then "likely" within a 100km radius around it.
10-15 years ago Durham region was the sleepy undervalued region few from the city to moved out to. When small "towns" like Brooklin were still quaint small towns with lots of charm. And hamlets were still hamlets.
The first wave (round y2k) was really lots of people from Scarboro, who couldn't afford much but could afford to put zero down before they finally changed those rules. So they did.
Then area's to the west of the city hit the "saturation" point. and most couldn't afford them. So they either had to look further west to Milton/Gueplh/Hamilton, or North towards Bradford/Barrie.
Then they started widening the 401 around the rouge and bringing the 407 from Markham to Pickering. The great bottleneck ( or Trump wall if we prefer started bursting), easing.
The quiet, little, affordable Durham region was no more.
It just blows my mind that people ( especially young couples starting out) are spending 400,000+ on war time bungalows that need work. 500,000+ on townhouses.
The bidding wars are a result of many things. The Real Estate industry is in part to blame, they sort of opened Pandora's box years ago. Was a time you couldn't "hold" offers, creating the log jam that today has
5,10,20 people all Qued up to make an offer.
Will a crash happen?
Depends. People need to live somewhere. Supply and demand, the GTA is unlike any other market out there. ITs the only centre in Canada really. In the US theres Chicago, New York, a handful......In the Last report I read on it. Demand>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Supply. They still figure they are short housing for 60,000 (I'm guessing thats worse now) in Whitby/Oshawa alone.
Depends on numerous things like economics, jobs, cost of living, and more.
A crash may sound like fun as a couple have posted but even if you, yourself and I ( no not you specifically) are unaffected by the paper drop in home prices.....Your job? your kids? Its basically a economic nuke going off. Look at the States. Hundreds of thousands of people, losing their homes and once the snowball starts..........
Whose going to be buying your widgets?
Queens Park? With so much debt? Whose going to paying the land taxes to "Pickering", Oshawa, whose going to be paying for teachers, nurses, blah blah blah
Holy crap those bankrupt people are toast
Holy crap thats 20,000, 30,000, 40,000 homes MPACs assessed at 800,000 now worth "400,000?", "200,000"?
Jesus H, says the town of "Pickering", our budget for this year is 20,000,000 in revenue...How the F are we going to pay the cops, and everyone else....
/pink slips
and the snow ball grows
*****
Will a correction occur?
Probably but how large, who knows.
If you need an Agent you can trust for Durham I know a few good ones. My own personal agent has been close to tears a number of times, when people she's trying to help find a place keep losing and losing and losing.....due to the insanity. Having 10-15 competing couples bidding against "you" is nothing. There are places where its 60 people trying to buy it.
There was a report that the average buyer will get into 13 bidding wars, before finally becoming so desperate, they throw everything they can at something just to
A) Get something
B) Remove the stress of looking
She had to help one young couple trying to move here from Montreal. meant every weekend Dad was on a plane to come join the mad house (The GTA) and pray that by the time he flew back home the 1 house he could put an offer on of the 10 they might have looked at didn't go ballistic when they opened the bidding war on the Monday. And if he didn't get the 1 and only 1 house he could try to bid on, options 2, 3 were gone as well come Tuesday. So it meant starting the whole process over again....
Wash/rinse/Repeat. Until you get to the point you throw everything "your worth" at it, to get it.
Oh and heres a kicker.
Maybe if the GTA and those at QP had paid a little attention to other places in the province, spread the wealth and jobs around. Everyone in the world wouldn't be flooding to the GTA like Mexicans do to the US.
I'm unfortunately in this boat. I'm going through a separation so we just sold our house in Ancaster for 80 grand over list. Most of the offers were from Toronto people. The only problem is now I haven't found a place for myself. The wife found a place on the west mountain and offered 50 over list and got it. I wonder if she paid more than she should have. Either way I'm still looking. Not fun.
The other morning on 1010 they were saying Toronto people are now going across the Skyway bridge as far as St Kitts, so the prices are starting to climb there now.Quote:
Originally Posted by JBen
yep......
I bought this place in the early spring. When it hit the fan at work, I made a decision to finally get out of dodge and the insanity ( and its not just this insanity Im referring to) within 24hours. knew I had to beat the spring market. A lot of my colleagues were kind of shocked, "why are you selling? We might get packages, depends on the Germans and the bankruptcy". My answer was "because". I had the house ready to sell within about 1 week. Cya and while I miss my girls like hell and some friends and the job search is/has been a bear...Best decision I've ever made in my life.
And the insanity has just continued.
I won't get into numbers, but the place we found.. When I look back I can't help but realize I won the lottery. A few board members have been here.I have no doubt if I was even remotely considering selling, its now a couple hundred more and Im close to Lindsay.
But its "relative".
if a crash happens ( I think thats defined as 20% or more)...Wooohoooo?
No, yeah Im further away and the ripples won't be as bad (just as the increase isn't as bad)....But guess what. Now theres hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of people in deep trouble. Who is buying my place??? Supply>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Demand.
And if I thought it was a good time to sell, crystallize some profit and buy something else dirt cheap.
Everyone else lucky enough to escape the Nuke is doing that to.
So Id have to really drop the price of my place to get it to sell, no-ones looking that far out anymore.
/madness
Really sorry to hear that Last5oh ( like 70% of the population been there done that. Will just say I got kneecapped, will work to the grave as a result but oddly Im really ok with that, its all in how we look at it. For me, Im out of the insanity. It will be on my terms from now on). Thats also part of it....Couples in 1 home now looking for 2 houses....
Really sorry.
None of its good.
If I can give you 1 piece of advice find a good FA, statistically it takes 7 years to "land on your feet" financially and other.
I don't like to sound like a doom and gloomer,but,we only need to look south of the border to see what lies ahead for Canadians who are rapidly approaching the edge of the cliff. In 2008,we largely dodged the huge bullet of an complete economic meltdown because of conservative fiscal policies,not so in the US where millions found themselves over-mortgaged and drowning in consumer debt. Canada is usually ten years behind the US in most things. Granted,the causes are slightly different,but,with mortgage rate manipulation being held artificially low and liberal financial policies that seem no where near reality,eventually it will come back to haunt us.
In the other thread, in response to Mosquito linking "the wealthy barber" I linked "When Genius Fails". I was there (not at Long Term capital) but "there". Its um, a good read...and largely factual.
Back then we talked about a lot of things at work, same stuff thats talked about here and more. Will just say Trimmer
All the stimulus spending, all the "quantitative easing" in the states, the bailouts in the EU, or Greece.
bandaids on a hemorrhage hoping to delay the "inevitable"
Don't know, no-one can see into the future...
On the separation/divorce...if you gave her everything AND all your money, but could be happy, it would be a bargain any way you looked at it and the best investment you'd ever make.
I watched this same foolishness in the States except some of the cause was different in that financial orgs. were offering 125% of appraised value of owned home just to get the lien for future speculative appreciation, coupled with the Gov. mandating a large percentage of mortgage capital, by law, had to go to purchasers that in no way could buy a loan/home at that cost.
So we had Gov. mandated bad/default-sure loans coupled with mortgage loan company greed(readiness to get your lien for future home sale if one defaulted or to "sell" the loan paper at profit to another greedy mortgage company, low interest rates and consumer greed.
I was making crazy money relative to the population, yet I'd see high school kids driving 5.0 GT Mustang to a country school while dad made 36k and mom made 25k and living in a 200K home with a 26 ft Mako with twin 250HP Merc hung on it. Dad was a cop, mom was a bank teller/officer.
I used to drive by their house on the way to the golf course and wonder aloud how the heck a patrol cop and a bank teller could afford any of that.
Then the piper submitted his bill and demanded payment. The economy and especially housing tanked, and the rest is history.
I never have seen so many quality vehicles, boats, airplanes and homes at bargain basement prices.
Greed always overruns the factors that restrain it.
I personally can't wait for the market stupidity to meet the real world reality.
In the first six to seven years Karen and I lived in the house in london only one place on the street sold. Only three for a couple blocks around us. Now there are four new familys just in our street, and at least one if not BOTH parents work some where in the GTA. That is at least a 200 mile round trip each day to go to work and back. We are getting three or four business cards from agents stuck to our door a week.
R I know you like this stuff, and follow investments, financing beyond the surface layer.
Pick up a copy of it, (when genius failed) if you want an idea f just how close things came to collapsing. while it occurred long before sub prime and mortgage backed securities had even really been created, its the same kind of stuff but "different". We were heavily involved in asset back securities 2000-2006. We were always very careful about what "assets" backed the vehicles, so were never in any real danger ourselves. If I had to guess in the years leading up to 2008 I might have had at any given time 2billion or 4 billion ( not even enough to scratch the surface of the amounts/ball o twine globally) in possible exposure on my book alone. We reduced that months before it hit the fan, and may have only had a couple hundred million left on my book when it collapsed.
same stuff, over and over and over.
Thank JB, I ran across that today however it didn't register@ the moment. I will check it out.
The difference(stupidity of US) was that Fannie and Freddie WERE MANDATED by the US Presidents to buy a minimum of 55% of LMI(low-moderate -Income) mortgages AND 38% from inner cities AND be "flexible" with loan requirements.
Obviously a poor/ minority/low income, high risk loan. Nobody in their right mind(banks) would write a sure loss bad loan but we did in order to buy minority votes and it caused what the world witnessed.
Then the idiot Obama made financial institutes(banks) hold enormous amounts of assets/reserve capital and tthe government fought to keep/reduce interest rates.
Well gee golly whiz, lets see, as Skypilot bank, I just take all the low interest money and build my Capital and never have to make a single loan or loan a single cent. A veritable non failable company. On the other hand small businesses were dying on the vine with no way to get capital for recovery. What a bunch of idiots the Obama Admin WAS.
I see some similar problems in Ontario as less regulated companies get into mortgages. Carbon tax is a death nell for Ontario along with Cap and Trade. Canada will make us less competitve with the World by adding a carbon tax, driving industry away. Then they get us on the other end by capping emissions and allowing us to trade emission credits with other companies, that allow imports to be way lower to consumers in Canada relatively to ours made in Canada.
People, WAKE up, the liberals are literally destroying your country before your eyes, just as they were in the US until Nov 8th.
People blame "banks" and while I certainly can't refute the opinions, accusations. I have slightly different perspective. There isnt enough money and gold in the world to cover the debt, not even remotely. Plu these days its one big huge "bird nest", the domino effect we just got a small taste in 2008.
supply/demand.
whether its consumer, corporate, municple, sovereign debt. All they, we do is meet demand. In short, its not the banks, financial institutions. Its the beast with the insationable appetite to live beyond its means. Supply liquidity. The day that gets cut off. Goodnight Irene.
Capital reserves are being increased here, as is more stringent stress testing and even CHMC.
I know of a house that that sold in Arthur last night for 35k over asking price. In Arthur. And it wasn't even renovated. One of our neighbours is a realtor. She says that 3or 4 years ago houses sold for just below, to maybe 10k below list and took at least 30 days to sell, sometimes 45. Now they are gone same day over asking. Go figure. I'm not selling, although I could make a mint. I'd have to move out to Harriston to buy a really big lot cheap.
... well this article doesn't bode well for my future wife and me, getting married this September 2017. I'm moving from my parents to her apartment in Oshawa. I've been looking at these prices and demands in Durham region, its unrealistic to get a decent house, townhouse or even a condo at sustainable price. I've been searching with limited success to develop my IT profession in the past 3 years that I had to start driving as a commissioned courier to put food on table and save up some money for a wedding. but the down payment and house?
Worst part is, I would have to leave my hunting gear with my dad because the current apartment where fiance stays is a co-ed with questionable people; especially when landlord has access to your apartment.
If you need help with the Durham real estate market research,my daughter is one of the best in the business. PM for details if you need help finding a decent place.Quote:
Originally Posted by poltrojan
Some sanity left in the Ottawa market - prices are actually dropping in suburbia. Still nuts in the downtown and trendy areas though.Quote:
Originally Posted by JBen
I tried a bully offer on a place in Hamilton yesterday. I went 50 grand over list, no conditions (no inspection, no financing, etc), and didn't get it. Trying another place today and going 50 over again. Wish me luck! It's like winning the lottery and when you win you get to over pay for a house.
Last5
This may or may not help you. It certainly helped us ultimately. I was extremely disciplined, in part because I know what I know ( my background, familiarity with financing, credit etc). I trust my agent implicitly, I hope you have a good one. It's not often but has happened over the years (I've used her a few times over the years) where she picked up on some small thing, that I didn't see, that had her sharing her head no......walk away....
Despite the insanity out there and it's everywhere now, different regions (pockets) have different dynamics. I can't speak to the pocket your shopping in, but....
Typically it's going to go like this.
Monday to Friday: Your going to look at 20-50 new listings. Then go see the 2,3,10 that you can see yourself living in.
Sat-Sun: See more of them, while they are holding their open houses.
The vast majority of places hold offers until the Monday, some Tuesday to create the bidding war.
So of the 5,10,15 houses that drew your attention that week. Sunday night your going to have to decide which one your going to bid on Monday. Along with everyone else out there that is in the exact same boat you are in. If you win it...woooohooo, if someone else wins it.
Your starting from scratch Tuesday morning. Because all the other houses you considered last week have sold.
wash/rinse/repeat until you get to the point where your willing to throw caution to wind, and everything you can at it.
Some houses, you just know are going to go into an insane bidding war. Not necessarily dollar wise, but you just know theres going to be 5, 10, 15 people putting bids in. Your odds of winning are 1 in 15. And if you don't get that Monday night
wash/rinse/repeat
Option b (every bit as nice, has what you need/want) but maybe it doesn't have the same amount of bling ( kick ask kitchen, or renod bathroom with bling) which you can do in a year, two time..
Hmmm, with everyone going for option A, maybe I'll sneak in and get option B at a reasonable price
*******
Try to find the place each week, thats the "sleeper"
And during the week, make a list of the two, three houses that most interest you. Categorize them by their "offer date".... aka
Monday: These 10 are accepting offers
Tuesday: These 4 are accepting offers
And be prepared.
ideally you find that rare person thats selling and isn't trying to create a bidding war by holding offers until "X" as I did. They still have 48 or 24 irrevocable hours. Which means you put your offer in right away, and then have to wait 24-48 hours to see if anymore offers come in.
its BS and this is where the real estate industry and agents are to blame.
Its a game, a game they've created. Know the rules, and turn as much as you can to your advantage.
The majority of would be buyers don't.
Going nuts here in Peterborough. We have 2-storey houses in our area that are 3-yrs old w/ unfinished basements listing (and selling fast) at over 1/2 million. Think the latest one to hit the market (mind you finished basement) is over $600,000.
Makes me wonder what our house is worth now - I am sure we have made at least $100,000 in the 3-years we have been here (not that we are planning on selling). Once the 407 extension hits to 115 I expect prices to climb even more here.
Problem is if you sell you need to replace it w/ something that is overpriced. I'll stay put.
Jben I've been looking for months and I've been interested in a grand total of 4 homes now. They just aren't out there and this is the problem. The place I'm putting an offer on today is nice and I'm confident it's in great shape. I even had a chance to talk to the owner (younger family looking to upgrade) and everything has been done/upgraded and not with low end stuff (appliances,HVAC, windows, etc.). This isn't a flip but rather a lot of pride and sweat equity over the last few years. My agent seems pretty good. He always picks up on the negatives first. Putting an offer in today conditional on inspection or financing won't cut it. Forget conditional on selling your present place, but some people still think they can do this.
And the rental market is just as bad, if not worse in ways J.
I'd have to know specifics ( how much can you put down, how much financed, etc, etc) but the reality is for most people if they can't put minimum 30% down and depending on sale price 40%.... your monthly rental >>>>>>Mortgage + land taxes
Thats something else you want to be aware of when I said every pocket has its own dynamics and some places you just know are going to go into insane bidding war. Know who your likely to be up "against" and determine which house will increase your odds of winning.
Is it a small house with a basement apartment?
Your up against investors looking to buy and rent it out.....have fun winning that house
Is there a "starter home" in the same pocket thats close to a school
Your going to be up against couples with young children...........
Is it a modest home, thats not close to a school, can't have a basement apartment put in...
Your competition just dropped by 70%, and likely your only going to be bidding against older couples looking to downsize
Your right Rick, in this market why would a seller accept a conditional offer. One: it could fall through and they've lost time, and that critical initial buzz when it first hits that sees dozens of people go to see it, most of whom go in firm (no conditions)
Again the Real Estate industry is to blame.
Bully offers work. But in order to tempt a seller to sign and forego the "bidding war" that can see their houses go for way over list you really need to sweeten the pot.
nuts
Discipline, discipline, discipline. My real estate rule is that no matter what, it is only worth what I say it's worth.
You may not buy many or any properties, however you'll not be caught losing your equity, credit rating and home.
You'll never get a place today thinking you'll get it for what "you" think it's worth. Trust me, been there done that. It really sucks!Quote:
Originally Posted by skypilot
Jben, luckily I'm in the position to be able to put around 50% down.
Rick, feel free to pm me if some night you need numbers crunched.
Anything, no matter what it is, is only worth what someone else is willing to pay. That's true in the stock markets, thats true in the job market, thats true in the real estate market. In normal RE markets a seller might think their house is worth $10. First they have emotional attachments ( its the house with so many memories), secondly its the house with that amazing backyard/view thats worth $3. Well only to people to think the same, to many people houses with green space aren't worth the premiums.....
I actually did hit the lottery Rick. Sky Pilot has been here, he knows what I paid for it. In my opinion the sellers weren't asking enough, I offered exactly what they were asking. When the bank sent their appraiser he appraised it at slightly more than I paid. That never happens banks "value" properties differently and part of that appraisal is "ok, if the person defaults, and we need to unload it what do we think it worth". Bank appraisals are almost always less to quite a bit less......Its similar to insurance, where they put a price on the bricks and mortar to rebuild but the inverse.
So not only did I escape a bidding war, I didn't over pay. If anything I got a steal and then some given the insanity out there. I have no doubt if I listed it tomorrow I could ask far more than I paid (without factoring in the 26% year over year appreciation or insanity).
I did something right in life, and the gods smiled on me that day.
Thanks Jben, I appreciate that. Sounds like you really lucked out. Hamilton is booming so I guess it depends on where you're looking to buy.
Booming is fine IF there are legitimate reasons for housing and rental unit values to rise rapidly. IF they rise only on the thought that they are "rising" therefore I must pay more is dangerous, speculative real estate and where unrealistic risk and economic danger exist.Quote:
Originally Posted by last5oh_302
It is one thing to buy high dollar housing if there are sound economic reasons. Like J posted , emotions are not a legitimate reason for a high price placed on a house and that is the current market especially in GTA.
They are out there, just be "mentally" pre-pared. It's more than a roller coaster and a crap shoot. There are places in Durham region where its 30,40,60 people bidding on the same house. As I said to R in the other thread.
Fear and Greed.
And it's our kids that are paying the prices (amongst others) for oh so much. Just glad Im out of the insanity (all of it).
Totally agree. The big city realty firms have teams of staffers monitoring every listing - MLS, private & 'other' - to ensure they don't miss a single opportunity for their clients.Quote:
Originally Posted by last5oh_302
Gone are the days of hoping you'll somehow stumble upon an underappreciated 'deal' that others have missed.
Even in a small town (Arnprior) outside a city (Ottawa) where real estate still isn't as out of control like Toronto... we ended up paying more than *I* believe this house to be 'worth'. Because sellers simply aren't budging on what they've been conditioned to believe their homes are worth. The realtors tell them that at minimum their homes should increase by X% per year.
Despite the fact that in the few years these ppl have been owners, their homes have developed foundation issues, or their shingle roofs are completely shot, or their 35 yr old plastic sliding windows that were "okay" when they bought the home are now beat up and literally falling apart, or the 35 yr old driveway that's never been maintained or properly sealed looks like a war torn Balkans highway in 1997... but yeah, "we put in a new stove and fridge".
There are a lot of pieces involved in this puzzle. No one cause or group to point the finger at. Essentially, if you hold firm - like i tried - you simply will not find a place to buy, and your wife will start to lose her shyte! :-D
simply will not find a place to buy, and your wife will start to lose her shyte! :-D
Fear and greed..................
Will say, over the span of 7 weeks (about how long it took us), we bid on a total of 4 houses. Some stats indicate that the average for people is 13........At which point they are well and truly desperate.
One of the first places we went to go see, we liked. She really liked it, I was "its nice but just doesn't feel right". We went back 2 days later to make an offer only to discover it had sold conditionally ( a rarity). She was upset at me for not making the offer right away and would remain so for weeks, especially as the pressure mounted. I had sold my place with a May 26 closing.
We bid on a couple others that I refused to budge on. Needless to say we weren't even close to be in the running.
Late April, still looking. We found a place in the country we both loved. Suspected/hoped there wouldn't be a bidding war. Put the irrevocable offer in. Sellers had until 7pm Sat night. Sure enough the young couple that was viewing the house just before us on the Friday it listed came in with a competing bid. I was bidding against them and their parents (who were also there to see the house, Im sure because they were helping with $$).....I offered $70,000 over ask. The Seller let us know it ws between our offer and the young couple and wanted to know if there was anything we would do...."not nessarily money" wink wink. Translation I was offering more $$, but would not go in firm ( wouldn't waive the well/septic inspections).....We lost.
She was in tears.
We both loved the house/property and the stress was mounting.
Literally the week we started looking at rentals (May 8th and with 2 weeks to go) and even they were going nuts, so much so we strongly considered renting a trailer at a park for the summer. See if things might normalize a bit, then go back in the market. This place hit the market Friday morning, offer was in by 7pm.
You might recall my weekly "insanity updates" on Facebook from last spring M, and the pics of just how lucky we were. Holding firm more than paid of me/us but realistically speaking......and she, my gawd the stress on her was....no words for it.
Where does it go from here?
I suspect worse, and I don't see the crash (correction yes, crash no) many are predicting. Too many moving parts, too big to fail ( if it crashes its going to be severe, a financial and economic) Nuke.... and more.
I get "sick" when I think about things ( we all know the topics) and what really, it means for our kids. I know a lot of young couples who are utterly SoL, no hope.
in time, 5-10 years who knows. Some things might be better, but for soooooo many.
Damage done.
Jben,
No one who's seen your place will argue. I fact I, as well as I'm sure many who've been are jealous. But yours is definitely a case of good karma.
I've been in the same house since 2009, but prior to that I could see it coming. Bought a house in Oct 2005, nothing needed, absolutely gorgeous, sold in May 2006 for 50K more than I paid.
The one rule I've always followed, and it's helped, is you always have to be willing to walk away. The usual realtor bunk lines "there's someone coming in with an offer this afternoon", "there's a couple coming by for a 3rd viewing, they may be bringing a deposit".....never let emotion drive a decision. "Thanks, but if that's the situation, then I'm not interested".....
In todays market, not sure how effective it would be. But I'm fortunate enough to be stable, and we'll likely stay put until I retire, at which point, it's take the money and get the heck out of dodge....out near my cottage which if anything is a depressed real estate market.
However, since buying my place in 2009, at a price of $265K it's now around $500, so I'm not going to complain....
Thats kinda what Im driving at. Not kidding (especially myself) when i say we hit the lottery. Wether thats the way it worked out, or the actual house/property. It was utter insanity, utter hell on her. Fortunately, knowing how banks work, knowing how peoples emotions often (always get the better of them), know many things, I was able to escape the insanity.
See a house you like?
Well chances are theres your bidding against a young couple ( if theres a school) who are just as desperate, if not more so (if they've already lost a few times and the wife is......)
KNow that and more going in, turn everything you can to your advantage.
I agree with J.
Emotion is a destructive financial advisor. Look at the actual reality of it and deal within that reality.
I broke with that 1 time in my life, and I knew I was wrong to listen, however I gave in to another's emotion and impatience. I did get my buying price but it didn't matter given the fragile market. It crashed and I ate the 100K.
It cost me close to 100K on that one deal....100k completely lost. Never again, it would have been cheaper to split the partnership than make that deal. Never again will someone else's emotion make my deals.
You're not alone. I made a mistake like that 12 years ago. It's taken two deals and all this time to recoup and just break even,not including the over-inflated real estate fiasco that's going on,today. If we decided to sell our house,right now,we'd more than triple our investment,but,like mentioned before,we'd need to buy another house,so,we wouldn't be any further ahead,especially,if this bubble bursts in the next year or so,like people smarter than me think it will. Nope,we're sittin' tight for now. Lesson learned.Quote:
Originally Posted by skypilot
Not a bad idea to hold pat and wait on the crash if you like what/where you are, as now the housing greed has extended into the rental pricing market.
It's not as simple now to sell, turn a quick profit, and just rent until the bust fertilizes the start of the next market run-up.
Good call Trimmer. Way too many moving parts.
There's all kinds "out there" on ohysological behaviour. Affects everything from investing, to planning, buying/selling houses. At its simplest...OMG the markets crashing...sell...and it snowballs. It's been established that Canadians are 3 or 5 times more bothered and worried about a 25% loss, than they are happy about a 25% gain.
Unfortunately many people don't have the "choice". Be they young families trying find places to put down roots, or the 7 in 10 people for whom the dream of white picket fences is ending. Or simply people who have to relocate for work reasons, whether that's a layoff, or simply having to move across town for a new opportunity/transfer.
Couple those things, with other things and
It's a fine mess.
Most of my post have been "aimed" (?) at anyone going into it for whatever reason.
Do all you can to get any edge you can. If you don't "need" to be close to a good school, stay far away, let the 20-60 other people beat each other up for it. The husbands wives will be everybit as stressed out as the next persons. There's only 1 winner and for the other "59" bidders. It's an utter waste of a week, and they have to reset, start from scratch....again. For the
3rd, 5th, 10th time.
Remember anytime someone buys a higher priced house that in and of itself drives the average price of housing up. No migration, no population change, no reason for the prices to be higher other than you bought a more expensive house. NOTHING ELSE. Now multiply that 10 million times.
More bubbles than Lawrence Welk Show and nothing underpinning that housing market other than speculation.
Low loan rates and high income are addicting to the housing market, but sooner or later the market adjusts itself or high inflation and high loan rates bite the most vulnerable.
Sounds like both Canada and the US will continue raising interest rates, which might help slow things down. Until things are nice and ready, I'll be renting and waiting.
Parents just listed their house in Mississauga for $975,000 and the agent figures they will get more than the asking price as it is a desirable area with a school literally in the back yard. House backs on to parkland with the school about 500 yards from the back of the fence, used to walk it everyday and walk home for lunch, watch the flinstones and then walk back for the afternoon.
Glad I am not starting out now as I am not sure how far out my wife and I would have to go to find affordable housing. when we were first looking 16 years ago we stumbled onto our current home in Ancaster.Wife works in Burlington and I work in Mississauga so its not a horrible commute. We got the house for $167,000.LOL , Its just over a quarter acre in the older part of town on a corner lot with an elementary school at the end of the street.
In the last year we have seen houses on the street and in the neighborhood go anywhere between 5 - 625,000. some of these homes are being bought by builders/investors being torn down and replaced with McMansion type homes that sell between 1.5 Mil -2.2 Mil.
we talked it over recently and decided we are not going anywhere.We have done the usual upgrades, windows, kitchen one bathroom, furnace/air and I am in the process of doing the 2nd bathroom. It aint a palace by any stretch but it is our home and we will likely stay until retirement in about 13 -15 years from now.
http://i78.photobucket.com/albums/j1...g?t=1488476419
http://i78.photobucket.com/albums/j1...g?t=1488476464
Nice digs HJ. Looks like you do better job on your lawn than I do. LOL.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hunter John
I grew up in a neighborhood like that in Peterborough. Those houses,now,are still around $350K,but,they're going up fast as Toronto folks retire and sell older homes for $750K + and move there. What absolutely floors me is the banks lending younger buyers two and three mortgages to get into the market. Some of the terms are 50-60 years,hoping the equity builds fast enough to offset the liability. That's insanity,right there. Soon,they'd have a better chance at a Casino.
Very nice HJ.
I'd take a home over a McMansion aka palace aka house, each day, every day, nine ways to Sunday. I don't "get it" why some feel they need or want anything but a "home"
Can't put a price on some things and no price would tempt me.
http://jbenphotography.ca/img/s10/v98/p2151131830-3.jpg
A report today.
https://www.thestar.com/business/201...ago.htmlForget the speculation. Many experts have been predicting a crash since the 90s, many believe it will never correct. As the report says ( and I mentioned in the political thread) Toronto is a world class city
The 5th largest in NA.
Demand will likely never slow down or drastically fall off. And by the time theres enough units to meet demand, we are years and years away from that. The caveat is the great "who knows what tomorrow will bring"
If anyone could really predict that they'd already own their own private Island somewhere. Not sure even Warren Buffit would go so far as to say he knows...
30% year over year increase.
50% of buyers are first timers
ignore the average detached price in TO (1.5mm). The average price of houses in the gta including Semis, links, towns is likely around 600,000
That means those kids want and need $120,000 for a down payment. Then are house poor, but how many years would it take to get that 120K saved. Now consider that house that 600,000 house is up 30% this past year. Aka it went up $90,000 in 1 year....They are done before they even start...
Eventually it will settle somewhere, somehow. Crash....I don't know, don't see it personally but a correction of 5-8%, yeah. The builders stopped building palaces on lots barely big enough to hold them some years ago. Why people want to live in fishbowls I don't know.
/wonders how many units would be available today, had for 30 years people not built those McMansions
Thanks J Ben. Sweet place you found to call home as well.
Thanks Species
Can't take any credit for the gardens or the wife would kill me and the lawn really isn't lawn, ya , it's green and it grows but it's mostly crab grass , dandelions, ect,ect. Never sprayed or fertilized plus my boy Jack has been cutting and trimming since he was 9. That's how he buys rifles and scopes/ ammo.
..... i just got sick reading this post. depression is getting into me as i keep looking at those house prices. to me its unrealistic, I can't seem to find a stable job, I barely make 48k.
my fiance and I we don't break 100k income annually on paper. we both said we don't want to be house poor, as she wants her hobbies as I do mine.
i'll be 35 this year and the idea of house/property ownership is just fading on monthly term now if the prices keep rising.
I feel for ya Poltrojan ,as I said previously if my wife and I were starting out today I am not sure what options we would have for home ownership anywhere near the gta. House went up for sale yesterday one street over from us at $600,000 and it's being advertised as a tear down saying " attention builders ".
This is what has happened across the street from my house. 1 house was torn down at $525,000 rebuilt and sold for 1.5 mil. The house under construction was a 550,000 tear down.
Poltrojan, I read your earlier post, didn't reply to it as I honestly don't know how to reply to it. Don't know what to say.
Most young couples I know and this includes a nephew who is a Dr and very brilliant and his young wife is likewise a PHd and working in any area. They are renting, and will probably never buy.
Totally hopeless no.
For starters as much as I loathe this admin they do do the odd kernel of good and occasionally do the right thing. One such, was a couple years ago they brought in some legislation thats forcing municipalities to renew old run down parts of town, or build up, before building out. Some years ago most builders finally started seeing the writing on the wall to. And rather than building 3,000sq boxes on 45foot lots that left people with no yard and no privacy, they started building a lot more Towns, semi's, links, and singles on smaller lots. Eventually supply should "meet" demand and when that happens, there will be less demand for the traditional "starter" homes, so there shouldn't be these insane bidding wars.
Legislation from the Feds and hopefully TREB and the RE industry wake up and realize they to must shoulder some of the blame and change a few rules. Will help to.
Between then and now a lot can happen, or nothing can happen. Trump could set off a Nuke, or A to Z but I wouldn't bet a on a meltdown crash. Looking at the US around 2006-2007 and then 8, even at its worst the big 3 escaped the worst of it. Lots of jobs, a fairly diverse economy and more. Toronto is the 5th largest in NA, but the only in Canada. Sincerely doubt the Feds, let alone banks will allow a meltdown. If its big enough any of the big 5 banks could tumble and theres only 5. And if it happens it will be ugly, very ugly because it will wipe out people, the few banks we have, many companies, many jobs, many towns who needs all that for their own tax revenue to pay their own programs and services.
Bang, might as well be a Nuke.
Re the rest.
Again I "know" :(
One of the things I have argued, defended, whatever for years here and unfortunately just way too many people caught up in their own lives don't.
Find a good FA.
It's not "that" bad, but.......
And a house, no matter how big and fancy it is, is never a home. If you ask me cavernous rooms, some rooms likely never used. Cold quasi half shell houses are all they are.
In time it should settle Poltrojan and other things hopefully to get straightened out a bit.
Thought I would add this. One thing (not the only) pundits don't talk about when talking RE and big corrections ( how large a percentage drop is a correction and when does it become a crash) is they don't talk about credit. They don't talk about how the world seriously relies and works on credit, nor the flow of it.
The states became a domino (as did much of the world) we felt it here, will just say it really kneecapped our company though we got through it. If people start losing their homes that hits our big 5, and the more it builds, the bigger the hit and won't just be 1. Each financial institution out there is in each other pockets big time. At it's simple Bank A gets into trouble, all the other institutions that lend or borrow from them are in trouble to. And it ripples out, credit tightens "we" stop lending, to companies that borrow for their operations, to each other and so on. Credit is our life blood, and a big enough "crash", well it would be like the Saudis turning off the supply of oil..But worse.
http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/70...credit-crunch/
Rent/Buy
Sell/Rent for 5 years. Well in theory sounds good but the rental market isn't much better and with starter homes going up 50k, 100k year............
"who knows"
Doubt anyone does but Ill tell you, don't think or hope for a crash,, if it does happen and it can, find a deep dark cave and hope for the best
Edit: Clarification.
The bad loans didn't touch "us", the credit crunch did. People/companies we were borrowing from started looking hard at us and in effect saying.."ok, if they get caught by a domino and default to us, how bad will that hurt"....So our capacity to borrow was gutted, which in turn meant A) We couldn't do as much business our taps dried up, less out the other side and B) we were looking at those we doing business with and covering our As. and so on and so on Companies like Ford/GM were affected less out there for them to, to expand plants, to lease fleets, to lease cars and so on and so on.
Much depends on when/if foreign money just switches from Vancouver to TO and or proxy buyers are rampant.
It will definitely adjust, as prices will out strip income/investment. Whose income is the question. Will it be from the Income from Canadians(affordability) or investment from foreign buyers. Regardless, sooner or later prices reach a point where demand, availability, pricing, ability to pay reach a maximum.
Whatever you do don't buy Genworth or Home Capital stocks. They are forehead deep in subprime mortgage loans. If things go bad they are holding "bad" paper.
The BIG red flag on home ownership is exactly what we are posting about....there is NO sane reason for housing to be this unaffordable to the vast population. So ANYTIME something is this far outside of normal, basic mortgage fundamentals, it is hard to predict, but potentially dangerous.
Even more so if this is a major, one shot, lifetime investment that if it goes bad, will have everlasting and likely unrecoverable consequences.
Other side is, there is no potential appreciation being taken advantage of.
It's the same old problem of when is the proper/optimum time for you to jump into an investment.
Lots of Canadians are pissed about the unaffordability of housing and it hurt Harper. I heard him state he wasn't going to get involved in the skyrocketing home pricing. He lost my support at that point.
He brought in some steps back around 2009-2010 by killing the old 40yr Amortizations, believe it was him that put an end to zero down, and there have been many changes in our industry ( some instituted by the Feds, some by our regulators be they OSFI, or banking regulators, or even those abroad like FATF and Basel) because it all is so deeply intertwined). When the German authorities seized our German Office ( trumped up tax evasion money laundering that were entirely retroactive...what was legal in 2008, was made illegal in 2012 and they went after many "banks). Little ole us were made examples of. They didnt realize that by cutting the one office off it would trigger a death spiral in bankruptcy and touch more than just us. Word we got was they were shocked...( lol great, the people who should have known.....). So they circled wagons and tried to make sure German depositors weren't touched ( kinda like Greece)....Authorites here circled wagons too and kinda said "fu". Some aspects are still before the courts.
Ontario Teachers Pension Plan was, as was National Bank. Thankfully despite what we did and numbers would shock people....we are nothing, not even a drip in the ocean. They both had to set aside hundreds of millions for write downs....
But our bigger institutions......."if" it goes south, well the far ranging effects are way beyond me. Deep dark cave.
Other changes that pertain to auditing/capital reserves, etc. But enough?
Well fast forward to today.
Really dont want to bore people to tears but these things relate, to so much.
If remotely interested, skim through some of this. Its a basic overview. I dont recall just how large the market is anymore, but its way more than banks have in cash/gold etc. In fact if everyone panicked and tried to sell/cash in just their Mutual Funds tomorrow, the banks wouldnt be able to get the cash.
http://www.fincad.com/resources/reso...it-derivatives
Does all this relate? Yes.
For the average home buyer who for whatever reason finds themselves in the RE market. Do everything you can to avoid bidding wars (most of it covered). What does it mean going forward. So many variables, population growth, economic growth, more. But as R said, the fact few "experts" can agree on what's driving it.....red flag
Thanks for the kind words guys, encouragements and understanding. Right now I will be focused more on wedding and paying off any debt that we have (cars, loans. etc) before we can actually focus on even putting a down payment on a house, still 20% in today's market? could be between $50-200k. Right now one of our family friends who is going to list his house, we know they bought it for around $500k and its less than my parent's in square footage in size. The agent had it quoted at $1.2 million... in less than 6 years? Jesus. My parents that bought this house in 2010 got it for $350k...a nice bungalow about 1500 sq ft; the houses in my neighbourhood had been selling for $750k minimum and that was last year early March in 2016. My next door neighbour (retired) will most likely downsize within next two years since the house is too big for her.
Right now, my fiance and I unfortunately will have to rent out the co-ed apartment for now, while I have to find a storage unit to store my tools, equipment.
I spoke with my friend who is in RE; he said he would prefer to sell more houses at lower costs that were 10 years in affordability range rather than now with all the bidding wars and overprice market. He doesn't like it when there is so many people trying to obtain a sustainable house to live but can't afford to.
Was talking to my son in law in Windsor on the weekend, we hope to moving there soon and the houses are starting to rise in price there as well, most places are now Multiply offer, what he mentioned was working in downtown Toronto and buying a house in Windsor, nices houses going for $350, - $400, range and then flying back and forth every day with Porter arilines. he said it was about a 1/2 hour flight and that they had
packages that went for $20,000. for the year for your flights. might be better than fighting the traffic to Oakville, Burlington and living in that 1.2 mil home that is the same size. Sure these are options some people are going to have to face in the coming days. anyone who bought a house in the mid to late 90's probably made a GREAT return on their investment. know we would never have made this much money investing anywhere else. Good Luck out there. Scary time to be buying a place in the GTA.
The place I'm bidding on closes this evening. There are 7 offers registered so far. I'm going 81 grand over. Can't afford to lose it at this point. Yikes!
Now that's an interesting idea....Quote:
Originally Posted by BIG MAC
20K per year amounts to $1600 per month.
I wonder what some folks who have a 5 hour round trip commute spend? The G&M just did an article on Shelburne ON ( Just North of me), where there are in fact people commuting into downtown TO.
$400 per week in airfare that puts you essentially right downtown......
:(, good luck R, hope you get it, but its exactly just some of what I've been speaking to. That and ultimately how it changes peoples physiological behavior ( not necessarily you), and the longer it goes on, the more houses lost out on ( need to reset each Monday) the worse it gets. The RE industry shoulders a lot of this blame ( greed).Quote:
Originally Posted by last5oh_302
That said, know a few agents myself. Dont be thinking a lot of agents are rolling in the dough. Yeah their commission structure is stupid. But these days theres nowhere near enough inventory. So if an agent is getting a lot of listings on the sell side, yeah some might be getting filthy rich without having to do any work. List it and boom its sells for X% over and the more it sells for the better their payout.
Demand>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Suppl y.
Most agents are breaking their backs on the buy side. Taking clients to multiple showings a week. For many weeks. Driving all over the place, taking their clients to places all over the place....Spending hours driving, showing houses, getting ready for the Monday night war...
"Sorry, try again" we start from scratch Wednesday.
Fear and greed are extremely powerful influences and colour a lot of the way we go about things.
**************
Im 10 minutes from Lindsay, quite a few of the people in this little pocket make the drive into Scarborough, Markam every day at 4-5am.....St Cats, Bethany, Newmarket, Port Hope....
Some take via rail from places into Union Station.......and have for years.
/sigh
Guess thats what happens when planners, politicians, (and not just today's) put all their eggs in one basket. The Golden TA
83 bucks and change a day for round a trip from Windsor to TO and only a half hour? Sounds like a deal to me if the duckies are right.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluebulldog
Thanks JBen. My agent just called. There are 11 registered offers in now. Crazy!!Quote:
Originally Posted by JBen
Make that 13 offers. 2 hours to go. Nuts.Quote:
Originally Posted by last5oh_302
For what it's worth R, that I think is normal to the East, or it's certainly not uncommon to get 15 bids on a house. One place we looked at last year, over 20bids and we were targeting places that would avoid it. Lots of places getting more than 40 bids.
When I first got divorced, 9 short years ago there was none of this...List house mid week, open houses on the weekend, hold offers until Monday bs. Im sure initially agents loved it, it helps them sell it by creating the "jam" ( and t's good for their bank accounts) sellers loved it to, but all they really accomplished was choke off liquidity, an essential, critical component to any market.
Hopefully TREB and others ( Feds set many of the rules) get their heads out of the sand and do what they can around the process/rules.......sooner, rather than later.
Here's what you do if you own a home that has greatly increased in price - remember opportunities like this may only come once in a life time - sell your place and move to an area where housing prices are still low - if you are self employed or can work from home or retired you got it made - if you have to commute then buy small motor home or truck camper and stay there during the week - you leave your home early Monday morning and go to work - stay in the camper 4 nights and come home again on Friday night - your away from home 4 nights - you would be surprised how many guys work away from home and commute only on the weekends - when the market crashes it won't bother you because you made your bundle - with cell phones you can keep in touch with home while your away - In my life time I bought and sold a couple homes - each time buying in locations where prices were low and selling when the prices increased - doing that a couple times enabled me to buy my present home with cash
Joe, I think "normal" expectations can be thrown out the window. How hard was NY and CHI hit in 2008 relative to other places. Not saying they didn't feel it, but compared to say "Small Town USA".
its important to look at dynamics or underlying fundamentals. Toronto/GTA is the only "megapolis" in Canada. In the US theres 5. If we use Vancouver or Calg as proxies. Once foreign investment petered off in Vancouver not long ago, there was an immediate cool-off, because largely thats all Vancouver has going for it....
The GTA gets about 30% of all immigration. Its a magnet, lots of jobs (relative), world class city etc. Now consider the economy here, where small town Ontario has been kicked in the gonads, and ignored while the GTA has received all kinds of incentive for companies to create jobs, and billions in infrastructure (be it 407 expansion, Go transit expansion, etc). So lots of Ontarians looking for work there, and people trying to get out....Not many jobs....
Very many, very knowledgable people have predicted corrections (noticeable) for 25 years....still waiting.
People who sold say 2 short years ago and rented with that idea are now likely SoL. The house they sold in 2014 is now likely worth hundreds of thousands more. This year prices are up about 30%. So if you sold a modest say for 600,000, it would cost 900,000 today. In just one year. Even small "starter homes" and Towns are going up by 100k and more. One area that would be considered the burbs ( Brooklin) Towns are going for 600k
So it would take a greater a "correction" of 35% just to break even (including commissions) let alone other taxes, fees, expenses.
Not saying thats a bad idea, but it's a big, very big roll of the dice.
And if house prices here do "correct" 30%
deep dark cave. We got huge problems that go beyond just RE.
I remember back when you could move to or temporarily "go to where the work was." I don't hear of as many "boom town" nowadays.
I do hear rumors that Hydro One will buy Toronto Power.
Good luck Rick.Quote:
Originally Posted by last5oh_302
Don't recall the exact time frame, want to say from 2008 to around 2011, net immigration ( People coming to Ontario vs People emigrating) was down. Don't recall the percentages either but the growth trend was down. For arguments sake, say 2.5% growth/year to 1.5%growth.
One of the conclusions was people leaving Ontario looking for work ( Calgary anyone???)
Know a few people that moved out west, including one electrician who would fly to Fort Mac for 3 week stints on one of the projects, come home for a few days, fly back out. Imagine if he had sold his house for say $300,000 back in 2010 and was now caught in the oil bust and trying to find work back here. Luckily for him his wife and kids at home........so never sold. Safe bet he'd have to buy far less (smaller) and pay more.
When the province (aka Ms Wynne trots out "jobs" numbers). One thing no politician will mention is that theres a certain amount of pure natural growth. if the Population is growing by 100,00/year ( Ontario is around that), even with zero help from the province. Jobs will be added. So when she says "we've replaced 30,000 jobs" since XXX...Well ok
How much has been PS (does virtually nothing for the economy but is needed given pop growth)
How much has been for purely organic reasons (natural growth).
Am thinking since Alberta went in the tank, a lot of people have come back home looking for work
905 area is now 1,000,000+ for average detached and T.O. is at 1.6M average.
http://business.financialpost.com/pe...to-the-suburbs
AND many of the "jobs" she claims credit for are part time, but wait there's more(like the commercial) NOW THEY are trying to spin that dud by headlines that now read Do we really need fulltime jobs" Who wants to get up at 4 am anymore. yada yada...Quote:
Originally Posted by JBen
I swear the liberals can spin an orphan's funeral.
Thanks John but I lost it. It went for 102 over list. Back to drawing board.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hunter John
That is too bad you did not get it... I hope something falls in your lap soon.Quote:
Originally Posted by last5oh_302
Best of luck
Unfortunate outcome. Hopefully you connect on something soon.Quote:
Originally Posted by last5oh_302
That sucks Rick.
"Orphans funeral", Lol R.
"Meanwhile in the suburbs, which cover the 905 area code, the average detached home price soared 35 per cent to $1.11 million from last February, the fastest growth of any housing type in the greater Toronto area."
The west is Saturated, to North its to Barrie, and the floodgates have been opened East.
In a couple years time the 407 will link up with the 115, and Go Trains service out to Newcastle (conveniently linked to the 115).
Courtesy of everyone in Ontario.
What a nice world it would be "if" the Gta wasn't so self centred. Don't get me wrong, these things and others are needed, and are good. But its a ridiculous 1 way street, and for those people who have no intententions of selling but rather hoping they can keep their jobs for the next 5-15 years, then cash in.
Well its "everyone" else thats "paid for it", literally ( Tax money) and figuratively ( taxation, Hydro charges, no economic growth...aka jobs).
No bloody wonder both the GTA and Ottawa vote red....
******
"supply crunch"
Interesting they are borrowing financial terminology, but yep that is "likely" ( room for doubt) the main reason. What is a "supply" crunch or "credit" crunch. A liquidity "crunch", not enough liquidity, its like daming a river, or cutting off the flow of oil, or even cutting off the flow of blood by clamping an artery............................
TREB
Everyone notice how they are washing their hands....
Nope, not our fault.
The Banks etc are worried, and likely rightfully so. If it goes south and it might, its unlikely capital reserves and write downs will get them out. Every institution out there will think about survival, (How much are they borrowing from us" ) cut off the flow of money, restrict liquidity, and if just one wobbles...............
*****
Rick really wish I knew what what to tell you, say. and I know you don't need "this" on top of everything else.
:(
Bought my present house in 1998 for 220 thousand , houses on our street go for over 1.2 million now. I don't know I will have to ask JBen , but is investing 200 thousand to make 1 mill in 18 years a good return on investment. Over that time would any other investment have increased as much as real estate?Quote:
Originally Posted by BIG MAC
In Brampton we have insanity rules in the market, 102 over is low, first of the year we started looking at an investment rental property and the one I have seen went for $250,000 over asking. Seriously, we put in an offer 50 over and it went 200 higher than that. Houses we have looked at that were only 2 or 3 days old had 30 or 40 cards on the table and even though it said they weren't accepting offers until a certain date they took "bully offers" and were sold before that day. Alot seem to be clamouring for those that can rent out the basement especially (or rent as 2,upper and bsmt and some 3 ... the +250 mentioned above did) units. We went to our max to see if there was as much demand and the one last night at over a dozen offers, we told the agent go home, don't even try! Each offer seems to be about 5 or 10K, so start at ask, add 10 * $5K and it was still early so probably more coming in... never mind! To quote the real estate again "INSANITY" and a 1.5% GIC is looking like a good idea.Quote:
Originally Posted by last5oh_302
Brampton home draws 532 showings and 82 offers
In hot Toronto-area housing market, it sold for more than $200K over its asking price
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toront...fers-1.3974147
Oh that we had got to our savings threshold last year (Hint: pay mortgage as fast as possible, once paid off keep paying 80+% as "rent" into a savings only account).... the real estate agent has pointed out houses sold in June now asking for $100,000 over what they were bought for and selling for over that asking price.
OH and good luck, maybe see if your agent will do a "bully" offer or watch for ones that just came on and the offer date is close (didn't work for us though).... and GOOD LUCK!!! We are going to take the agent out for a nice lunch (friend of ours daughter) and tell her never mind.
Lucky you G.
You were born at the right time, in the right place. But as I've said, pointed out. Most of that appreciation, you can thank the tax payers of Ontario for. 30 years ago, Scarborough was little more than a sleepy burb.I know I remember driving across Steeles and it being farmland, or taking Kingston road to the 401 and.......
Investments in infrastructure, job creation, ( aren't they still fighting for TTC fundings and subway lines).........Do you think for example Fenelon falls, can rely on their house to retire comfortably......
Shame about the rest of the people, and today its biting a lot of people. Whether its people caught in it for no fault of their own like Rick or our children.....
I could easily be wrong, don't quite me, but I think the stock markets have a historical trend of about 5-6% appreciation after inflation since 1980. So a simple calculation might show a 200-300% return. Whereas housing might be up 900%.
Now I know you have argued long and hard about the rich not paying their fair share.
Those stock market gains are subject to capital gain tax on 50%.
Your house being a primary residence is not.
Im sure when you cash in that million dollar windfall ( thanks mostly to the tax payers of Ontario) your going to argue you should hand over say $250,000 (50% of 50%) as a kind of thank you and pay back.
Wow what a world of difference - down here a house may be on the market for a year or more - the seller usually has to reduce the price and the buyer will offer less than listed - sounds like you are real lucky if you already own a home in one of those high priced areas - builders must be having a field day with such a high demand for houses and construction workers must be really busy - if your young and just starting out maybe you want to consider moving to the U.S -
Joe be quiet.... we don't want the talented and smart one leaving Canada! Someone has to help pay the debt our PM Zoolander is running up. These idiots are now projecting the budget will balance itself in about 40 years.
Alot of the properties we have looked at are two rental units houses and many have been owned by real estate agents. They are locking in their profits so I suspect that we will see a tipping point at sometime, it may be a drop, a stop or a crash but who knows how much higher the juggernaut will go before the steam (price vs interest vs peoples funds (including jobs)) has a fundamental problem. Also with the interest in rental type houses there may be a limit on the number of people looking for rental units. The increase in immigration is one thing and the refugees having one years funding then getting the fed boot may be significant factors on demand.
If this is your primary residence than it is only a good investment if when you sell you downsize significantly or move to an area with lower prices. Otherwise you will just have to use the money to pay for what ever place you move to. Alternatively if you die and your kids have their own places than they can sell and reap the benefits.Quote:
Originally Posted by fishermccann
JBen I get what you are saying. Right time right place. I grew up in Scarborough , the top of the bluffs near Bluffers Park, which was a landfill site in my youth. I live just across the border from Scarborough and I pay twice the tax for the same size house. I also pay taxes in Kawartha Lakes, over 2 grand for a bunch of garbage bag tags, so I can take my own garbage to the dump, I am on an island, so no road to plow, no mail delivery. I do subsidize what goes on in Fenelon Falls even though I cannot vote there.
haha, was hoping you'd understand theres winkys in there.
Similar arguments can be made "everywhere"with respect to land taxes and thats one area where I suspect the great evil one (Mike Harris) was "right". By downloading a lot onto municipalities, it put more onus on the residents of that area to be more responsible for themselves. Aka pay for the things they want/need.......... Or live within their means......That said, fast forward to today and its brutally obvious how (searches for right words) inequitable it is. Whether its blatant vote buying, corporate welfare (catch all phrase to describe subsidizing companies for hoped for job creation) or infrastructure spending. All these things relate, and are part of the equation with RE prices.
Great cities don't get that way by accident.
Kingston, London/Waterloo, so many others...Have they grown even remotely close? Many in fact have gone the other way..........
just saying.
So as it pertains to RE.
Well there are reasons demand>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>su pply, and those same reasons are directly tied to "property values" in and around the GTA.
What a mess
we got ours in 96 for $ 173,000. and probably in the Million range now . maybe more as we are on a dead end street in Port Credit on a 50 x 200' lot and rear neighbors have 50x200' lot so lots of privacy. will wait and see when we sell in the summer...Quote:
Originally Posted by fishermccann
As I'm trying to purchase my first home here in Peterborough it's becoming super difficult. People are coming here from the GTA and over bidding on every house that comes up. The most I've seen here is $130,000 over the asking price so far. Locals here cant afford that and meet what they are offering. The average home here now is around the $400,000 range and rising.
once the 407 connects to 115, you won't be able to afford a house just like in Toronto or GTA. people commute as far from Barrie to Orilla to Toronto on daily terms. this is insane.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bonkers
I read this entire thread and never have I been so glad to live in rural Eastern Ontario (between Renfrew and Arnprior in the Ottawa Valley).
The sums of money being discussed are just mind blowing to me.
Many of these people would be better off relocating to other areas of the country where housing is 10 - 50% as expensive and working lesser paying jobs - they would be further ahead.
Big smile.Quote:
Originally Posted by buckchaser
As mentioned when the company was seized this time last year, I decided it was time to get out of the asylum. I grew up in the beaches, spent my misspent youth in the wrong places, moved to sleepy Ajax when I was 27. In short, I am a product of it all, and the reality is the vast majority of residents, the vast.........Are neither cityiots, are neither "Libtards", or some other cute names. They are though
self centred.
When it comes to politics and things like this. They don't see, or can't be bothered to see how so much, affects so much.Busy lives, corporate ladders, keeping up with the Jones's, health problems, unruly teens, maybe their own jobs on thin ice, etc, etc. In short they are just people like everyone else.
Caught up in the trappings of modern day life, lemmings in the rat race.
***********************
Problem Buckchaser is when you make that move for a better quality of life, a saner life, where chasing the almighty greenback isn't so important.......These days
There are few jobs.
My plan when I moved out of the centre of the Universe ( many reasons why many in Canada think TO is full of themselves), was given my knowledge, my qualifications, 20+ years in advanced investment, capital markets, it would be an easy slide into becoming a CFP ( certified Financial Planner) and work at a branch within a 90 minute circle...North Durham, to Peterborough, Lindsay, Orillia, Uxbridge/Newmarket. No issues here going from 6 figures down to the median ( low 40s). Life isn't about $$.
Know idea how may applications at this point.
Not 1 phone call
********
It's just nuts, how often will people from the GTA say " Well we raise everyone else standard of life"..."We pay the most taxes", blah blah blah.
Never realizing they by far get the most ( infrasture, corporate wealth fare, have the most Hospitals and thus Drs, Nurses, more...........the most schools boards and thus schools/Teachers, the two biggest slices of the budget). On the topic of Hydro they are pigs ( look at Ontario from the moon at night) so they use and pollute the most (yet Rural Ontario pays for it all). So all these wind farms that so much $$ has been pissed away on...Its not for the rest of Ontario..............Yet all pay for it....And thats before boondoggles, and outright vote buying.
300,000,000,000 in debt and climbing, making the GTA the "greater"...ta. Obviously like the laws of supply/demand. Expenses>>>>Revenue, or ability pay>>>>demand.
Why does the GTA get 30% of all immigration, why are property values exploding, etc, etc...Demand>>>Supply.
So much infrastructure, so much subsidized public transit like the TTC/Go Service, so many Hospitals and Schools and more......Aka see above and 300b in debt.
Getting the heck of it was the best decision Ive ever made in my life.
Now just need a job
;)
If the City of Toronto raised their municipal tax mill rate to the same level as the rest of the province,their fiscal troubles would come to a screaming halt providing the lefties didn't blow that out of the water in one fell swoop,too.
Land transfer tax in Toronto crazy though. The tax on a 500,000 dollar house is roughly 6 grand anywhere else in the province but the tax on that same house in Toronto (as if you could even get a house for half a mill in TO) is about double.
Just sold a lovely 1400 sq foot house 35 minutes from downtown Ottawa. Move in condition on a half acre lot for 255K. Fenced yard, 3 dog kennel.
Just missed out on a 320k 1800 sq foot bungalow on 2 wood acres in Dunrobin - 15 minutes from Kanata.
I don't miss Toronto craziness.
Another thing that makes me shake my head Werner.
In the GTA 1600-1800sq is considered "small".
When I got married our first house was 1500sq. Few years later I was 30 (1994), getting caught in the trap and being the family man I was, making sure my Italian bride was leaving the dream of white picket fences and big houses ( the typical Italina princess dream). We paid 270k for that monstonsity in 1993. Today its probably selling for quite a bit more than 1 million.
Here I am a short 45 minutes to the same area, in home that in that area, would go for million(s). At 1800sq we feel its a little too large. Its got amazing flow and it's deceptively large. A lot of people think its larger than it is. We were shopping for smaller, but here, as there, as Hunter John is seeing on his slice. Those nice homes, are getting knocked down for large, square boxes with no life/character. Finding "small" bungalows....they are few and far between.
Not far us ( 3-5minutes away) theres a tiny little hamlet of about 20 homes called Valentia. Theres a horse farm, likely been around forever. Guess sometime a few years ago, they parcelled off a bit of property a long the concession. Would look to be .5 to 1 acre lots. Guess whats being built on those lots. Square boxes with no life/charm I would guess easily 2500-3000 sq.
This is what $600,000 can get you now ( assuming it doesn't go over ask, good luck with that :)...), its just a couple minutes away.
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/S...Rural-Mariposa
I have no doubt I could put a for sale sign up tomorrow, make a ton of "profit" and move somewhere further away from the insanity that is life in the GTA. I have kids in Oshawa/Ajax that themselves are just striking out, trying to find their way in the utter insanity that still need their dad, and at some point hope to find work, that keeps my mind busy and me interested (don't care what it pays, theres far more to life than the greenback) and being a lemming in the rat race.
Maybe we could save gas if people worked and lived in the same city.
Choices to be made... I bought a lesser house than I could afford so I could do a lot of other things including paying for two kids to go through engineering programs at universities of their choice; buying a cottage that's close enough I make it there every weekend for 8 months of the year; buying a couple of boats to go with the cottage; and 150 acres of my own private deer/turkey/bear hunting. I'd rather all that than a big house in a big city.
Pretty hard to argue with that !Quote:
Originally Posted by werner.reiche
Nope, But how many of todays 20 or 30 somethings will realistically have that chance/option.
I really wish I could see 10 years into the future. Labour markets, median incomes for various area's etc.
Telling my kids, or anyone kids...Well you should find a place outside Kingston, or outside Ottawa ( not sure Ottawa is a whole lot better).
Know a number of my friends that are anywhere between say 45 and 60. There are some pretty predictable topics of conservation. Universally most are really concerned for their kids. Whether its this issue or some others, like how many of them are coming out of Post tens of thousands in debt, and struggling to find work....Or if they get decent/good jobs..
Whitby Townhouse
http://www.point2homes.com/CA/Home-F.../38377827.html
I am assuming that any carpenters, electricians or other construction trade workers must be making out pretty good since there is such a shortage of houses - there are probably a lot of kids that end up going to college and racking up a big debt and can't find a good job where they would have been better to learn a trade
If I could turn back the hands of time Joe, kind of wish I'd gone into the trades. Not long ago there was a thread in the politics forum that touched on some of these things. Werner had a great phrase to sum up what he calls
"education inflation"
How often do we hear/see justifications for various industries "well they spent 4 years in school, they should be paid tons". Ontario statistically has the highest number of post secondary graduates. You can't blow your nose these days, without it requiring a "pedigree"....
In essence, chasing the almighty greenback, society ( note theres no distinction amongst different industries or groups) wanting more and more. Be it more money, be it larger housing, be it more $ from Queens Park for this that and the other....
That said, not all is rosy with the trades either.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/men-...hind-1.3962316
Trades are really only good for plumbers, electricians and hvac.Quote:
Originally Posted by JBen
Specialty guys like cabinet installers, flooring, roofers can get by if they own there own company,
but if you just work for someone else, not a lot of money in it.
Very little masonry work done now days.
Carpentry is essentially an unskilled trade.
Me too , but I can't talk my husband into it. We have a big beautiful 5 bedroom in London . It was his family home.Quote:
Originally Posted by werner.reiche
+2, would rather have a nice cozy bungalow with character like my parents have now; than a townhouse without a backyard or a clone without appeal. On my street houses are 36-50" lots built about 30-40 years. You'll find a couple of the same but most of them have their character and appeal, also very green with decent amount of trees.Quote:
Originally Posted by 73hunter
Also cottage is an appeal for me too. a land lot up north for now. :/
Well folks here is how you do it - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v8Pe_u_4q5M
Living the dream.
Well I finally closed a deal on a house today! Yay! Spent more than I wanted but in this market I had to bite the bullet. I went for something a little more rural and these places don't seem to get the competition like subdivisions do but I'm happier having a little land with room to move anyway. The closing date is later than I'd like but what can you do. Another separation so he needs time to find a place for himself but will leave earlier if he finds a place earlier.
Grats and good news Rick. Putting it all behind you is one big part of it. In time the dust will settle and then you start the next leg of life. We are loving rural life, and while the job market is different and challenging, any kind of a commute, while its more Km, its often the same or less time. We had to stay in a BnB for 6 weeks between closings, we just made that part of the adventure and had fun with it.
6.x in 10 are separating getting divorced. Adds to the buying demand. In the past couple weeks there have been more reports and more tales of insanity in the press. Don't see it slowing any time soon. Glad your now out of it.
Thanks JB, it's quite a relief.
Anywhere remotely near the GTA is like this now. People born and raised in Guelph can not afford to buy their first home in Guelph because of all of the people from the GTA buying houses. They used to head north and buy around my neighbourhood, but the prices have risen so much and the homes sell so fast now that the new home buyers can't afford to buy in my town, so they must go even further north still. Even smaller farm communities are having homes go to bidding wars and over asking. It's nuts!Quote:
Originally Posted by Bonkers
Congrats, we put in an offer on an investment house at $50,000 over .... we were only $110,000 short ..... it went for $160,000 OVER asking price. I talked to the agent and she said there was one that was for $799,000 she saw and it went for $1.1M, it backed on a conservation area and had a huge lot. CRAZY!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by last5oh_302
This is just part of what makes me shake my head and what the GTA has become thanks to politicians, and what residents have done to themselves/others..Short sighted, self centred, chasing the greenback/dream....
Spent some time on MLS this morning, I didn't look any further south than Port Perry. Can't count how many modest homes ( 2,000sq with 3 beds), the types of places a young couple, with a growing family would look for, and then in turn vacate their "starter" home. I saw listed for prices starting close to $850,000 and some if they had a little property ( not acres, just more than 45x100 ft lot) well over a cool million. These places are well outside, not on or close to the Lakeshore Go line ( and a train into the city)......
Saw a few "starter" homes. The kinds of places anyone in the working class would be very happy to call home and to hang their hat.
Most would be like this one, just nuts. Nothing special, in fact might need a little "upgrading" in the kitchen and certainly the basement being finished...........And you know it's going for more than "ask". Maybe 50 more, maybe 150 more...
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/S...1S8-Port-Perry
Not many years ago, "Port Perry" was the gateway to cottage country. Now its just another bedroom community, in a city that has shot itself in the foot, where those before allowed greed, the Jonses, and more to take over.
There WILL be a a "correction" and it will be a dandy whether we're ready for it,or not,worse than we saw in the mid to late 80's.
In agreement to JBens statement of needing a redo in certain parts of a house and then going 50k plus over asking, when my wife and I were looking we went to an open house, asking price $550k . The place looked like three people went on a month long drunk and decided to renovate. Worst drywall I've ever seen, Kitchen cabinets were crooked, baseboard trim coming off the wall, water stains on the drywall near the windows, and the dirt of the place.....no thanks. Drove by Wed night sure enough SOLD sign. Even though it was described as updated it still needed a lot of work.
Lets take it one step closer to the centre of it all........as the same problem exist with the GTA younger residents too. They consider their home town Toronto, the place where they were born and raised, they too won't be able to afford to own a home in the city they grew up in.
So the big question for me is, who it buying up all these homes at these ridiculous prices? Where are the new buyers coming from?
The house in your link no longer exists..lolQuote:
Originally Posted by JBen
Chinese.Quote:
Originally Posted by fratri
Buddy bought his place in Oakville a few years back for in the 450 range and theyre all selling for 1.2 mill (starting at) and it's all Chinese folks moving in.
I'm not sure anyone knows for sure. Certainly some of it is speculative and foreign investment. Some of it is investors buying places to turn into rentals. But from a few reports I've read, the bulk is still first time buyers. So young people starting out, that either grew up in the GTA, or have moved here/there in search of work and the dream.
Read something not long ago, that showed in the last 5 years, the population of the GTA has grown by 600,000 or 10%.
Have heard that Brooklin, a few minutes north of Whitby which was once a quaint town (if that)just some years ago, is project to double in size (30k current to 60k) in the next 4-5 years.
Lmao Rick. Guess I shouldn't be surprised. Today is reset day and the vast majority of what was available last weekend, sold Monday, with athe rest going Tue.
I was told today that this is just a "millennial" issue and that were just to entitled. Well the days that we were brought up to believe are going to be there, are now gone for us. Working hard and getting a good education seem to mean nothing. Stagnate wages, poor housing market, high debt has hindered an entire generation.
Every generation, to one degree or another blames the previous for some things. This is one, where I agree. and for the most part the reasons/causes are fairly apparent. "Me"
For the younger people, leaving schools with a lot of debt, a pedigree that says your capable of driving a cab, because in time, even cab drivers if they aren't already will need to be certified, and that's assuming there's jobs in that field when you come out...
"karma" is a B. When your 35-40 and still in your parents house, maybe the basement with your spouse and child. You can remind your parents you'd didn't make the mess......
/half smiles.
"I was told today that this is just a "millennial" issue and that were just to entitled. Well the days that we were brought up to believe are going to be there, are now gone for us. Working hard and getting a good education seem to mean nothing. Stagnate wages, poor housing market, high debt has hindered an entire generation."
Who is making money from your suffering?
Was talking to someone last night.
That persons parents have taken out a reverse mortgage on their home, hopefully to see them through retirement. They are/were concerned about it, mainly because they don;t know anything about them. So I explained how they work, and tried to put them at ease. Like the majority they (that persons parents) don't have guaranteed for life pensions. The trend of reverse mortgages is very popular in the EU, and they are gaining in popularity here.
reality
For seniors on fixed incomes they need a place to live. So because land taxes, Hydro and more are exploding, the immediate thought is. Yes, they can as many think sell their homes, downsize and bank a lot of money. It's not that simple. Once you get to be 65-70, things like being able to walk to a store, walk to a coffee shop to meet a friend and far more become very important. In time, for many driving becomes an issue..............
Many seniors in the burbs are already in "trouble". Because unlike the city proper, walking to a grocery store.......meeting friends, or seeing their GP........Yeah their homes today might be going for stupid prices...great, they've sold their house, where their children grew up, and more. Where do they go to live? Not everyone enjoys being isolated, not everyone can handle cabin fever in winter, not everyone is ok with the possibility with having a heart attack and help not arriving in time..........
So many are turning to reverse mortgages.
They can stay where they are until the money runs out and the bank owns the house. In Europe they also have a mechanism where you sign over ownership, but the "lender" will carry the house for however many years be it 10 or 30. But when you die, they own it. So even if the money hasn't run out............but it's possible you could outlive the money to...either way, they take possession as soon as you pass.
"who is getting rich from all the above"
Not sure "rich" is right but you can look towards the GTA and figure it out. You might be surprised. Think Baby Boomers.
Good points in the above post JBen.
The one HUUUUUGE thing wrong with the direction Ontario has been heading since the McGuinty days is the HUUUUUGE cost increases in basic unavoidable items like heat, hydro and taxes. It is making Ontario (even rural areas) a very expensive place to live. That lack of affordability is causing much hardship for many people (retirees without government pensions, students, under employed, etc).
My TD Canada Trust loans officer neighbor tells me 70% of young clients are mortgaged to the eyeballs relying on real estate to continue it's growth to build equity in property to offset liabilities and have credit card debt accumulating from only making minimum payments every month. Man,this can't be good going forward,no matter which way it's sliced.
You got that right and when the "correction" occurs or "bubble bursts", there will be a lot of hurt. Then it will be time to buy. There are far too many people buying homes that are out of their so called approved budget. No one really needs 3000sq/ft homes. It's a waste of heat and hydro right from the start.Quote:
Originally Posted by trimmer21
Boy when you look at the cost of things in Ontario compared to down here one wonders how people make it - the exchange rate now is approximately 1 American is worth 133.5 Canadian - if a piece of land is for sale say at $300,000 I would be paying $225,000 for it - comparing prices of selected items in stores like Home Depot, Target and Cosco one finds that the same item costs from 20% to 40% higher in Ontario - then if you have to live anywhere near the GTA the cost of houses are 2 to 3 times higher for the same size house - gas is so much more expensive - how are you able to get along - saw a video of Canadians coming down to a border town in New York and just about emptying the shelves because of the cheaper food prices - maybe its time to start thinking of moving -
Well experienced first hand this weekend in Windsor what is happening in the GTA. Bungalow Listed at $279,000. probably low on purpose, well it attracted 12 BIDDERS, ( as to me you are not making an offer you are bidding on a place ) and it ended up going for $62,000. over asking and probably needs $40,000. - $50,000. needless to say we are now as J Ben stated starting to look again this week to place our BID next week. as I said to my daughter even if you get the house your not sure ir you WON or LOST. Sure investors have started to move to this area to invest their money . andif the bubble does burst they don't lose as much...........HAPPY HUNTING , Glad I went ice fishing yesterday so didn't have to sit around and wait for the news. our agent was totally shocked and she said she figures we didn't even come in second as someone had a cash offer of $325,000. and was shocked as well.
Jeez another caught in the insanity. Sorry to hear you to are caught in it BM.
I seem to be having friends over at the right times. A friend of mine is an agent ( not my agent, just a friend thats a good agent) and was over last night. Like us, he got out of dodge last year, moved to Lindsay in the fall. One of the things talked about, and like this thread we covered everything. From what it's doing to our children (he has kids to), to reverse mortgages, people without pensions, job markets etc. Basically this thread.
His office, stats are saying buyers are having to put in an average of 10 offers before they throw everything they can at something to get it. My agent last year was saying their office was 13. So for all intents and purposes doesn't look like much has changed on that front.
BM, as mentioned earlier in the thread to Rick. It helped us some, hopefully it can help you. As your looking at places online tomorrow-thurs ( the new listings). Print the ones off you want to see in three piles.
Monday Offers
Tue offers
other.
Ideally your #1 place is a place that
A) Not holding offers but you can expect the normal 24 hours non revocable...This basically ties your hands for those 24 hours once an offer is in, but you can avoid the bidding wars. Its how we got this place
B) Or is accepting offers on the Tue. You will still be up against other buyers that lost out on Monday....if they are mentally prepared with their Tue back up. Many aren't, especially wives. They get their heart and hopes up for one they are bidding on Monday, and if they don't get it are crushed and frustrated, not really to go right back in Tuesday. Basically it can reduce the competition......
C) Mondays. If your #1 choice is accepting on the Monday, try as much as you are able to avoid places you just know will get into multiple offers. Either because its close a school, has blinded out kitchens/baths ( lots of people want turn key, not willing to wait 6 months or a year to do a reno, or DIY) etc, etc. Basically you just know there are going to a lot of offers for it....Let people beat each other up, while you find the sleeper.
Good luck BM, sincerely hope the stress doesn't sideline you for a long time, nor reduce your family to tears.
:(
Yes, we are back looking at places today , doesn't effect me as much as it does the wife that is for sure. I don't even get excited while sitting at the realtors office signing all the paperwork. we also have to shift gears to include Raised Ranches as well as Bungalows realizing that for every 50 or so raised ranches 1 bungalow comes up on the market. we are lucky in we have time on our hands but looks like the GTA prices are rising weekly in Windsor. Sometimes hard to make a point to the wife when we offered X amount of $ last year on a house but it was $ 7,000. below asking and on Kijiji to boot ( so the seller wasn't paying a nickel in Realtor fees ) to losing out on this one at a lower $ # even though we where $ 40,000. over asking price but this asking price was $90, 000 lower than the other house . So I said no matter what the house is listed at we should just say here take this top # we had last year and throw away money. I'm sure the house will come along as the # of houses coming onto the market will only increase in the next few months. I would suggest to anyone who has an extra Million $ laying around to invest it in real estate in Windsor, Ontario's next hot spot, get in while the getting is good.
... fvck this. i'm staying out of this race. no point in stressing out after the wedding. jesus. Honestly I'm praying for a "bubble" or at least some kind of large tax against foreign investors in real estate to kill it off; especially empty houses on hold for investment purposes. Houses are meant to shelter people and provide safe refuge not a stress killer. There are at least 2-3 empty houses on my street, fvcking salesman bought them and renovated last year for this year summer sale.
I know somewhere(Florida ?) they have a non occupancy tax to discourage this. Maybe we need it too.Quote:
Originally Posted by poltrojan
The City of Vancouver is now using this. Taxes are very high and it's very effective. A good barometer of pending market 'corrections" is to watch sales of vacation properties. When finances start getting tight,people dump these on the market to off set mortgages that are coming due at term should interest rates start to rise.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fisherman
I know a guy who sold out in the late 90's thinking there was a bubble, and he sat and waited to buy back in. He was sure sorry when it didn't happen.
The banks know people are in over their heads. So does that government. They won't raise interest rates unless they are forced to.
We have a massive immigration challenge, people need houses.
There's a lack of property to build, especially homes with cities now pushing high density.
I am concerned about the high prices, but I'm not convinced there's going to be a bubble bursting.
New for 2016 the Feds have changed the capital gains tax on houses, primary dwellings. So starting this year if you've sold your house you have to include it on your return ( I did). Thankfully over the years I never claimed any part of my house as office space etc. Else there would be significant taxes owing......I imagine there is going to be a lot of kicking and screaming over it, but it makes sense. If you've been claiming 10-15-20% of your primary dwelling as office space, and that same has increased in value over the years, then it should be taxed as a CG when it's sold. No differently than an office that's separate from the primary residence.
There is a lot of speculation ( when theres that much smoke, theres usually a fire) that more changes are coming to capital gains taxes. We find out very very soon. :)
I will not be at all surprised, if there is significant changes to capital gains relating to real estate. And they might be significant enough to make many investors (land lords and would be land lords) think twice....or thrice. It's one thing to pay tax on 50% of any capital gain, it's quite another when more of its taxable, and there is always the possibility of a correction or loss. Wouldn't be surprised if there are changes to rental income as well. How many "investors" have bought property and either sat on them or flipped them in the past 4-5years and pocketed a ton of money. Most of it, "tax free".
All kinds.
That will cool the market.
JBen - just went through this discussion on another forum. The rules re: capital gains have not changed and there are no plans to change them. They are trying to find a way to enforce them. Specifically, if you are claiming CCA for floor space in your home for a home business (WHICH YOU SHOULD NOT BE DOING), you will owe capital gains tax on that floor space. That is fair and reasonable. Also if you significantly modify your home to accommodate your home business, those modifications are taxable.
I'm fortunate. I live in a bungalow just outside the GTA, which has seen it's value grow exponentially in the past 2 years.
I leveraged a small part of that equity, and paid off all of the unsecured debt we were carrying as a family. ( Not a lot however). Our family isn't growing, and our house is a modest size ( 1700 SqFt). Due to the nature of my employment, I'll remain in-situ until I retire. At which point, despite any market volatility, I should have a tidy return on my investment. I will then relocate to an area which has low property values. ( I'm very surprised that it has stayed that way, but glad nonetheless. Jben you've been there with me).
I do however dispair for the younger generation coming up. I worry about my son, and his ability to chase his dream when he gets to that age.
I may not have worded it well Werner.
"where theres smoke theres fire"
I was using CCA on home based businesses, to lend credence to the speculation that there will be more changes with respect to CG taxes on residences. What is new for the 2016 calendar year was indicating on your return if during 2016 you sold your primary residence and the disposition.........Whether you have or haven't claimed any CCA in past.
BBD.
Yep and in possibly 5 years time we might be your neighbour ( that area along with two others are the target zones) . Our 5-10 year plan involves one more move. There's a chance this is our forever home and we have fallen for it and the area deeply. But the plan has always been one more move. Really depends on me, and employment or income.
Agree on the smoke/fire thing. But as of 2016, there haven't been any changes to the taxation laws - only what has been reported. I do know of people who have skirted the law re: no capital gains on the principal residence, so I see this mandatory reporting as a good thing.Quote:
Originally Posted by JBen
Well... I have managed to avoid getting involved in this discussion so far, but as a full time realtor for the past 12 years, I get emails such as the one below and I thought I should share it today:
On March 22, the Government of Canada released their 2017 budget, which included several provisions related to housing and the real estate industry.
Pulling from summaries provided by the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) and the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), below is a summary of the provisions included (and excluded) in budget 2017.
What Was Included
$11.2 billion over 11 years to National Housing Strategy
$11.2 billion will be invested over 11 years to build, renew and repair Canada's affordable housing stock. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) will be responsible for implementing a series of initiatives identified by various stakeholders as part of the National Housing Strategy consultation process, in which TREB took part in the fall of 2016.
$39.9 million over 5 years for a Housing Statistics Framework
The creation of a Housing Statistics Framework was promised in the budget. The proposed framework will include a nationwide database of all properties in Canada and data from the framework will be published by Statistics Canada starting in the fall of 2017. The Framework will also provide up-to-date information on purchases and sales, including the degree of foreign ownership, as well as information on homeowner demographics and financing. This data will allow policymakers to accurately analyze the housing market.
$5 billion over 11 years for a National Housing Fund
CMHC will receive funding to address housing issues by prioritizing support for vulnerable citizens.
$67.5 million over 4 years for Energy Efficiency Programs
In addition to the creation of a national program to review existing building codes, retrofit existing buildings and build new net-zero buildings, the $67.5 million will also be used to renew and continue existing energy efficiency programs.
Commitment to Study the Utility of Personal Real Estate Corporations (PRECs)
OREA noted that the federal government's decision to study the utility/use of private corporations doesn't preclude Ontario from acting to permit PRECs but the decision could make it more difficult for OREA to effectively lobby for this at the provincial level.
Changes to Legislation on Anti-Money Laundering and Anti-Terrorist Financing Regime
The government reinstated their commitment to strengthening the Proceeds of Crime (Money Laundering) and Terrorist Financing Act (PCMLTF) by making changes to the legislation. These changes would focus on compliance and the functionality of the legislation.
What Wasn't Included
Changes to Capital Gains Tax
Despite much speculation that the budget would see an increase in the capital gains tax inclusion rate, the federal government opted to keep the rate at 50%. Instead of raising the inclusion rate, the government has stated that it will issue a consultation paper on the use of tax planning strategies involving private corporations that allow high-income earners to reduce personal taxes.
In light of this, OREA has noted that the chances of Ontario introducing its own demand-side tax measure to try and cool the housing market have increased. OREA further suggests that when Ontario releases its budget in April, it is expected that the province will introduce a number of measures to address affordable housing, including a possible measure to curb speculation and/or foreign buying activity in the housing market.
CREA has noted that they will monitor this issue closely and participate as necessary.
Changes to Home Buyers Plan
The budget did not include a provision for the extension and indexation of the Home Buyers' Plan (HBP), an issue TREB and CREA have long lobbied for. Given the recent changes to mortgage rules amid federal government concerns about home prices, CREA notes that they did not expect this provision to be included. CREA will continue to press for improvements to the HBP in meetings between PAC representatives and MPs at CREA PAC Days this fall and TREB will join them in this endeavour.
What's Next
As CREA notes, the 2017 federal budget did not further tighten housing market regulations. The government has mentioned that changes announced in October 2016 are expected to have a modest, temporary impact on housing in the short term and that the government is ready to further adjust the housing finance framework, if and as required.
Well the search is over ( wipes brow ) , got lucky and found a place yesterday, first day on market for this house, supposed to have an open house today and tomorrow but asked agent if they would accept offers before and the answer was YES. My thinking is these people really didn't want to face the onslot of a 2 day open house with lots of strange people coming through their house. Found out they had 3 bidders so a 33 1/3 chance of getting the house, better than the 8% chance on the last one, went in at 9 % over asking and got LUCKY. 4 month closing so saves us a lot of CASH in carrying the second house so all in all ahead of the game, and got the house we WANT, not something we would have SETTLED on. All in all a Good Friday and now can delete about 20 alerts I was getting every day. Glad to get that out of the way as Windsor is getting crazy as well, agent said someone paid $100, 000. + over asking on a place just last week, so now onto getting ready to sell at this end sometime this summer.
We live in a subdivision that was developed in the late '70's/early '80's, bought here in 2009 and all the houses very similarly priced were going for +\-$250K.....we've been watching the steady increase but all the neighbours were shocked when a house sold yesterday for $510K !!
Absolutely nuts
Good news BM, that really is the way I think to do it. Go in knowing what your up against and just like any other game, or competition do everything you can to stack the odds in your favour. And at least for the foreseeable future, that largely means find the sleepers as you did ( and I did) that for whatever reason, escape "notice" and/or as soon as they hit the marker and where the sellers aren't holding out for Mondays bidding war.. The more other would be buyers are beating each other up on the other places, the better your odds. It might sound a little cold but times are what they are.
Nice read Hawkman.
Not sure what they hope to accomplish with a couple of the bullits and some of whats left out is telling, including some rule changes. Its not in CREA or TREBS hands to make those changes, but they should be at the table looking at them, proposing them. They have a role in this to.
Also think it's past time the industry look at, and find a different model for their comp. Its no fun being an agent on the buy side, I know my agent and Ive used her for years, trust her implicitly and more, has been reduced to tears a few times herself the last 1-2 years. Also know, just like buyers are averaging 10 (or more depending on the region) attempts...Well that means their agents can go weeks, months without closing a deal.......And with soooooooooo many agents out there, and so few houses on the market, its tough getting the listings on the sell side.......She (and her husband)went to the wall for me during our search, and because we were moving away from the asylum, that meant lots of hours and lots of Kms on the road for her to, meeting us at every property I went to go see............and know she did it for others (as mentioned including one family trying to move here from Montreal last spring).
But on the sell side?
Like prices and the bidding wars.
Just stupid, anything and everything is selling with zero effort, time or knowledge on the agents part.
And given house prices have been and are going up 20-30% each year.............................................. ....
Average price of a single detached in TO is just over 1,000,000 now.
$40,000 to $50,000 for about 5 minutes work.
It was only about 6 years ago, when "holding" offers, creating a log jam, intentionally setting up biddings wars was not supposed to be done. And the fact is, in this environment while there are a number of reasons for it all. Lack of inventory........aka liquidity
And Agents are intentionally reducing that...choking what little flow there is, .....and have been for some time, making a bad situation a lot worse than it should be. Not to mention what that is doing to the value of houses, going 10s, or hundreds of thousands over list.
J Ben the bungalow we bid on the week before had 12 bids, and if I where a betting man the agent listed it at $279,000. for a reason, to get people interested , if it was listed around the $310,000. or $320,000. mark where it probably should have been for the size of the Peoperty you might not have seen 12 bidders, the week before it was 3 bidders on a bungalow just 5 mins away and same size property. to me what that just did was drive the price of the other roughly 30 houses on that street up another $15,000. - $20,000.
My agent, who I have known and used for years have talked off and on about some of the possible/probable causes, some of the problems (and she more than agrees TREB should shoulder some of the blame) , what its doing to her clients (and herself, because she is one of those agents that actually cares about her clients, wont bs them, wont mislead them just get a deal closed, if theres something she doesnt like a bout a place and thinks I should walk back out the door, shell tell me...and will drive herself into the ground trying to find them a place). We've talked about the problems investors are creating (those looking to flip a house, or buy for rental property), we've talked about how agents themselves are creating problems either through the rules, or buying up properties to flip or rent and more.
Have 2 pretty good friends that are agents as well and obviously the topic comes up a lot. One actually just recently decided it was time to leave the insanity, that is the GTA and moved to Lindsay. Should also indicate how good my agent is....:)
One of the problems agents are now having is determining a fair market value. Low balling a house in order to help incite and insane bidding war has been part of the game for a long time now. But its so bad now, its a "crap shoot". Was a time one reason agents could justify their commissions was they would knows the ins and outs of their area's. Why a house on one block might be +/- 15,000 to 25,000 from a near identical house just a couple blocks away. Good agents could nail its fair value so it wouldnt sit on the market too long, or be listed too low, and the seller leave good money on the table.
Not only does that not matter a bit these days, its making it near impossible to gauge a properties true value. I mentioned earlier how banks use their appraisers......... Two comparable houses could go very differently. One might get 30-50 offers and sell for 200 over list, a near identical might get 10 or 5 and go for list or a little over.
Hence in part why many frustrated buyers hear the words. "Throw everything you can at it". And next thing you know "market value" for that neighborhood has jumped 50k, 75k.
I think ( am not sure) there was a pretty famous place in Oshawa, and it might be th one that started this thread. Listed around 800k, needs work and it went for 1.2ish.
So what does that tell a would be buyer looking at a similar place not far away, or would be sellers?
Jack squat, its a crap shoot
I have learned a thing or three in life:
- People think what people think.
- People do what people do!
- Everyone thinks they're being logical and they KNOW the truth!
- Common sense is not common.
When it comes to real estate and the recent insanity, all of the above apply - most of the time.
Crap shoot?
Maybe.
Simple rule is this >>> MONEY = POWER
What is our government doing to control any of this?
N O T H I N G.
At least nothing that would benefit the ordinary folk.
At municipal, provincial and federal levels, all I see is the government trying to make a buck for themselves. It's messed up big time if you ask me! They all want to welcome that foreign money and know that every sale means Land Transfer Tax in their pockets. Plus then they can collect higher Property Taxes because MPAC will give a new higher assessment value to plug into the tax mill rate.
Why stop there though? Follow Vancouver's lead and TRY to collect an additional tax from the foreign buyers, as if THAT will help stabilize prices for my kids or yours!?
It's just money money MONEY ... and nobody wants to fight that power. They just want a share of it for themselves. I can write here forever and still not be able to convey my thoughts effectively. Everyone reading here is "people" and people do what people do, regardless of who says what.
Think I mentioned a few times "fear and greed" Hawkman.
Two of the most powerful motivators there are.
Was reading two articles yesterday. Nothing new really, everything thats being bounced around here. One article keyed on the govt's reluctance to bring in a foreign buyers tax, another keyed on the lack of inventory and "causes" for that. TREB blamed this that and other, all good points but one thing they didnt mention, at all (maybe because they shoulder some of it). Is how many people are there, that wont and arent listing because its so insane. Have to live somewhere and there have got to be thousands and thousands, tens of thousands of people standing pat, who might want to downsize, upsize, move into a condo, move across town to be near kids. If not for the fact that I knew it was time for me to leave the city ( sick of city life and some things ) and it was time to go country (as I have planned all my life).
I probably wouldnt have listed my place.............Made my place in Whitby available for someone.
Do know, it was an investor that bought it, and its now being rented out. Likely at a rediculous amount per month (Rental market isnt much better). Foreign buyer thats using a property management company or local person, dont know.
The one thing I keep wondering about and while stats never tell the whole picture and can be misleading. Even a few reports from Treb (maybe they've been from CREA) say almost 50% of transactions are first time buyers.
/boggle
MPAC.
Lol, yeah.
Something a wee bit different, from the point of view of realtors.
Have to call "BS" on a couple of items. One because one of my friends is a stager, a good one. I know what she charges for consults ( when the seller has good furnishings, colours etc and she just gives them a list of "do this, do that, move that here and that there) and what she charges for staging (when she does it and when she has to bring in better suited furnishings and accessories).
And what photographers charge, given I've done some and I know what the rates are
If a realtor is paying "$10,000 to stage a home, have the photos done....lol unless they are selling places on the bridle path, no wonder they are finding it hard....
But that said, and as mentioned. Yep, no picnic for them either.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...ticle34429954/
New listings Down 12.5%,Quote:
One of the biggest problems is the supply of housing simply hasn’t kept pace with demand. The Toronto Real Estate Board’s (TREB) multiple listings service registered 9,834 new listings last month; down 12.5 per cent from the same time last year.
prices up 28%
Probably a few reasons for that, one almost certainly is "fear". Fear of getting caught in these insane bidding wars, that over and above make "putting a price" on your house, or the house your buying, something of a crap shoot, because yup, people are people and who knows why they do the things they do. Your house could go ballistic and go for hundreds over ask,maybe the winner has been trying for 3 months (12 weeks, 12 attempts) and is now so desperate they just throw every single penny they have at it........ or it might go ask ( I bought mine right at ask, and it also was appraised by the bank at a little less than I paid, basically I paid exactly what the banks appraiser thought its worth, and his prerogative is to protect the bank, meaning.........a rarity,)
or just a little over like Big Mac bought his.........But neither Big Mac nor I were "desperate" enough to throw every penny we have at them.....Maybe our wives hadn't been reduced to tears 5 or 10 times....
Fear of having to spend weeks or months going to see properties, going to open houses, being told somewhere between 5 and 13 times (depending on region 1 to 3 months) every Monday night as the TREB created Monday night insanity comes to an end and theres 1 winner and for everyone else a punch in the gut, "I'm so sorry, you didn't get it" or "Im sorry, even though you scraped every available penny you could, and went in $50,000 or $100,000 over ask, you didn't get it, it wasn't enough . Now you get to hit the reset button and do it all over again, hop back on that stressful, emotional roller coaster.
Again
and Again
and Again
and Again
and Again
Or you could just decide not to enter the insanity ( not become a statistic) and not move.
funny TREB never talks about that when blaming (rightly) the demand/supply forces or lack of liquidity.
well in our case I went in at $10,000. less then the wife wanted to THROW at it. not sure i would have ever heard the end if we had lost out. but it was based on our realtor wanting us to go in at asking and I know if we did we'd still be looking today. I feel for the agents for the buyers as there are houses in Windsor selling $10, 000. - $20,000. under and only on the market a few weeks and places selling for anywhere from $10,000. - $100,000. over in the same amount of time, as someone stated a complete crap shoot., in our case it was a combination of amount of time spent looking, looking at places we probably wouldn't have liked and also the driving back and forth to Windsor almost every week, we also had a 10 point checklist of things we wanted in the house we where looking for and this house checked off 8 of them which was the same as the last 2 we had looked at. The 1 bonus item on this house is the Grounds and Flowers and shrubs, probably $10,000. - $15,000. alone which helped us in giving that little bit extra to get the house. also lucky enough to once again get a quiet street with a 75' X 215' lot which will be nice as we are leaving a 50' X 200 ' wife looked at some places that where 40' x 100' I would look and it would be a resounding NO. didn't even look at the location or the house.
All I can say to anyone else looking don't be afraid to ask that person on Kijiji who is having an open house on the weekend if they would take your offer before the open house, son-in-law got his place this way, same as us. I was emailing the selling agent Friday Morning to ask about getting gas to the stoves and dryer etc. etc. and that got the conversation moving along and next think you know we own the house 10 hours later.
It's "A Wild Wild West" in real estate these days and that's all I can say to sum it up.
Home Stagers, Home Inspectors, Pre-Listing Contractors, Realtors, Mortgage Brokers, Realtors, Sellers, Buyers, Kijiji Shoppers, Foreign Investors ... have all seemingly joined hands to destroy our way of life here. As an immigrant myself, I sure don't appreciate others coming here to mess things up the way they have already messed up their own countries already.
Too much government and not enough governing. No fear JBEN. Only greed.
TREB, CREA, OREA, etc., are all asleep at the wheel. Federal, provincial and municipal governments are only looking for ways to increase their own $$$ share of this "hot market" and enable themselves to give themselves salary raises, increased benefits, and of course the financial ability to buy real estate!
Business owners are up the creek without a paddle. Renters? Ditto!
Nobody feels sorry for anyone else, and as I mentioned before, Money = Power.
In my 12 years I have never seen anything like this and my colleagues who have been in the biz for 30 years haven't seen it either. God helps us all - IF there is a God that is.
Hard to argue with that Hawkman. I have a gut feeling you and my agent would get along just wonderfully.
The RE issues like so many things have ties to politics. Even the fact that because the GTA is what it is, has what it has, is a magnet, black hole, what ever one wishes to label it. And there are reasons for that to.
In the end, it's just normal people getting hurt.
My girls are 19 and 23. One is just starting out ( she just found a place to rent yesterday)...
One of the articles I read yesterday was for "boomers". How to get your millennial kids out of the house...
Lol,
Good luck in years to come if there aren't widescale changes to more than just RE.
It's a bloody mess.
And honestly, no good ways out or answers I fear.
My daughters are 17 and 20 so I feel your pain.
It's beyond frustrating to see their futures destroyed because some rich people from OUTSIDE have decided to come in and mess up the scenery. Free enterprise, powers of capitalism, plus a LACK of governing governments have resulted in a toxic mix for our younger generation.
What can they possibly do to generate enough income to enable them to carry such ridiculous mortgages?! Which job would give anyone a 100% increase in salary due to the "logic" that house prices have increased that much in the past 4 years?
Our niece is in her early 30's and just got married to her long time BF. They both have reasonable jobs yet very little hope of being able to afford anything any time soon. Prices are still climbing...
Looking one inch in front of my nose, I should be happy that I own a home, mortgage and all; but my personal curse is that I always zoom way out and try to see the bigger picture. I do not like this picture at all.
When a house is listed and sold, I see the names of the sellers, the buyers and the respective realtors doing the deal. More than 60% of the names are Chinese or Persian. I myself am from Iran and I know how ruthlessly they have raised prices of everything there in the past 37 years, helped in part with their ever plummeting currency values. It BLOWS my mind that they can come to the GTA and buy/sell multi-million dollar properties as easily as drinking a glass of water!!!
Our loonie is weak and our policies are lax, so I can see why the Chinese people are crowding here and buying up our real estate even easier than the Persians are doing it...
There are numerous angles to look at this issue and I have too much happening in my head right now, preventing me from making simple and coherent statements on the subject. For that I apologize to anyone reading this.
Most agents I know truly care about their clients, but there are bad apples in every basket, from mechanics to financial advisors, etc.
The real estate industry needs more regulations indeed but all the governing organizations keep making bad decisions and ignoring the main problems. Too many talking heads. Too many simple minds.
Until there's another complete economic meltdown,I don't see an end in sight. Banks,realtors and government just keep steamrolling along like there's not a thing to worry about. I'm really surprised the Feds didn't hit us with huge capital gains provisions in the budget to cool things down a bit. Liberals never saw a tax they didn't like,so,I thought they'd be all over that like a hound on a hot dog. Something is going to give,maybe not as soon as I think,but,when it goes bang,don't be standing in front of it because it's going to be fugly.
Problem is Trimmer, if that occurs, it will be ugly.
When you look around the province, everywhere outside the GTA, things aren't so good. Has economic growth in the province been good the last couple years? Yeah, not bad and I'm sure Ms Wynne will (and has bragged) about it. But its kind of like that Dr and the stats not telling the whole story. Its one thing to crow to about 2% or 3% growth, but then not look any deeper. Aka how much of that is the GTA......And how much of that is in areas getting crushed, that have been for years....The last I read, also showed that wages across the board are down a bip. So even though, for the first time in years, more full time jobs (where????) have been added than part time wages are going down. And there are already hundreds of thousands in "Energy Poverty" and more heading there. Gee what nice clinical, politically correct way to label what things have done to people. Well to people everywhere but......
Right now with respect to housing the only thing saving the GTA likely is population growth. But thats also the problem...The expansion East? Well its being done for reasons...
There are reasons everyone is heading to "the land of plenty". What happens when that fizzles, like it has been in ALTA..............You know sadly its not unlike what occurred to Oshawa years ago, except on a much larger scale. Oshawa had all their eggs in one basket. 20-30 years ago Oshawa was booming...... a nice place to live and work.....Today
Average household income of 46,000, the highest mill rates in the province and more.
And Ontario has all its eggs in one ugly, greedy, self centred beast of a basket.
Im nowhere near smart enough to see or find answers, decent ones that cost an utter fortune (looks at 300b+ debt), but Im not dumb or blind either, like Hawkman, I have a hard time not looking at the broader and deeper picture. We've screwed our kids royally(well some of us have) along with those in power. Old cliches stick around for reasons. In this case
Follow the money
There are just no good ways out.Hydro and so many other things. If housing crashes or another kick in the guts economic downturn. Might as well set off a nuke right in the core of TO, a big one.
Who picks up the pieces?
No idea, but Im thinking the people who will be in a position to buy houses will mainly be those people Hawkman is mentioning. Everyone is else is just going to be hoping they "survive", keep their jobs and can hold on.
I'm not sure what is driving the TO market. Around Ottawa it's pretty stable - maybe off a bit.
In this area, one thing that the year-to-year comparisons that show ever increasing prices don't
show is that the houses being sold are getting bigger and better finished over time.
I'm moving back into town (Kanata) after 27 years in a small village east of Ottawa.
(taking 120km off my daily commute and cutting the 2 hours to the cottage/woodlot
to 1hr15m). 13 year old 1800 sq ft 2 storey on 40x100 lot like new inside 370k.
There are some stunning awesome deals on houses in the Eganville area.
Part of me, the part of me that isn't anywhere smart enough wonders, if what we need is prolonged deflation. Wages going down, which in turn brings the prices of things down. And something that triggers an exodus from the GTA, slow or stop the population growth. Reverse the trend of the last 10-15 or 20 years. Build up other areas, be they Kingston, Kitchener Waterloo ( See Ms Wynne trying to entice tech companies there) and more...
It came up in another thread Werner albeit it subtly.
Lots of tax breaks over the past X years to "modernize" houses. Great, who or where exactly can people "afford" to pour 20-50k into houses.
1800sq on a 40x100 with lots of bling. In Durham region, maybe as far East now as Newcastle that would likely be listed for 600,000 or 700,000
This is what $500,000 can buy a young couple in Newcastle. Just a mere $500,000, not sure where two kids starting out will find the $100,000 for the minimum 20% down, but who cares....Apparently not many of their parents....
Thats assuming it sells for just $30,000 over ask. Better hurry. With the 407 linking to 115 just up the road, and with Go Train service due in 2-3 years....The commute into the city will be around 2 hours, so not so bad. But if you don't jump now, in 5 years time if things (all things) keep going the way they are...............
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/S...o-L0B1M0-Orono
There's one in Eganville like that for 125k.Quote:
Originally Posted by JBen
J Ben, there is house similar to that ( not as nice outside ), think address is 1086 Fourth Street Mississauga, listed for $775,000. with 2 open houses on the weekend, but on a lot smaller lot , we are getting our realtor to find out what it sells for, my guess is the hight $800,000. SCARY , SCARY , SCARY.
Makes you shake your head in just pure WTF how insane crazy greedy and more ( aka political masters, glass towers, ivory towers and a couple more) are people and the GTA is and in almost utter dismay and sadness.
We can point fingers at this and that. A lot of it for things over the past 10 years say, but in truth a lot of it probably goes back 20-30.
There are reasons why when my world blew up last spring I said "screw it, Im out of the insanity, short sightedness and more". Have spoken with many good friends that are still in Durham region ( about 6-8 like us have said this is Fn nuts, Im outta here) because as Hawkman rightfully said/pointed out and its not just housing prices...........
I know 2 very good people, both want badly likewise to leave the insanity. They feel trapped, tied to the GTA where the work and $ is, but more importantly they have kids, kids that if they aren't getting started now, will be in a couple years. One guy has been pricing places north of Lindsay, up around Balsam. But every time he finds a place he thinks he can call home, the chains hold him back.And he is beyond "worried" about his kids.
His wish and hope is that his kids can find work somewhere very far away, and then he will follow them.....
But he knows........the odds of that.slim.....Many of my former colleagues jumped right back into it. Some found work during the summer, late fall. Some have already been laid off again.
Werner if my girls weren't in Durham, if they still didn't need their dad somewhat close by Id be up around there somewhere. Its one of our target areas for maybe 5 years down the road. Nuts eh???
125,000 vs $500,000
just freeking nuts.
*****
Not sure what I did right in life to first
meet an incredibly smart woman with more degrees (pedigrees) than I can shake a stick at, but who long before me saw the trappings, the bs, the power struggles....And said "F it, Im outta here". If it were up to her, we would be in some 2nd world country where the ocean breeze blows through some small hovel with year round open windows already. So she was more than onside when I said F it, Im out of the insanity myself......
Then to find and get this place the way we did.
The last month or so Ive been trying to keep my pulse on my new hood. On one hand it would seem prices are going nuts and I've been thinking about hitting a nearby open house soon. Just to gauge the "demand". See how many lemmings in the rat race are pounding the door.
There hasn't been anything listed "in my hood" since last summer.
Im thinking thats a good thing, for the most part we are in a tiny little pocket thats off the radar.
for now.
But when I look on mls just outside this tiny wee pocket no-one has heard of before.....
We are just outside a tiny little hamlet called Valentia, a little South and West of Lindsay. So a good 90 minutes to Markham or Scarborough. 2 hours or more into the city. There are some here that do that commute.....
now
This is basically right across the water from me.
$700,000
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/S...1K0-Janetville
Closer to Port Perry all kinds hitting the million dollar mark. And thats Port Perry!
That "exodus from the GTA" has been happening for quite some time JBen.
In fact for as long as I can remember people have been living in places from Orangeville to Peterborough and commuting to Toronto/Brampton/Mississauga for their daily work.
The current real estate prices have only helped people to shift their brain gears again, accepting the "need to commute". That desire to own a home has flared in many heads, pushing them to places like Port Perry and beyond. Maybe it's a good way to help populate the land? I don't know.
As JBen said, where are the jobs in those far away places?
What if the price of fuel skyrockets again and commuting becomes un-affordable?
My thoughts again go to all levels of GOVERNMENT.
They fail and fail again.
People pay the price for their incompetence and their selfish greed.
The mayor of Toronto makes me so mad every time he opens his mouth and a balloon's worth of hot air comes out of his empty head. The guy can't shut up about transit. Streetcars are a JOKE and the City of Toronto doesn't care AT ALL about all the businesses that go bankrupt when streetcar rails need to be repaired or replaced on a street. I've seen many tragedies as a direct result of streetcars being in existence and I hate them with a vengeance.
Yet, it's all smoke & mirrors, telling people how the City will fight Bombardier in court for not delivering the new version of these antiques(!) on time. All in the name of "assisting people" with their "transit needs" of course. Bait and switch, on a daily basis, while quietly collecting billions in Land Transfer Taxes from all the ridiculous real estate sales!!!
In any other country, there would be at least a talk of starting a revolution.
The foreign buyers are messing things up as we speak.....
haha, we really nd to have a brown pop or other sometime Hawkman.
Don't disagree at all. Re Tory, also moaning about tolls on the DVP. On one hand I see his point but on the other its not like everyone hasn't already done a ton to put his city on the map. Get lots of lots jobs in region, etc.
Re population
Don't know, can't be sure, but I would feel comfortable suggesting tthe growth in the city say over the past 8 years (since 2008) is far outstripping anything before. I know for example the town of Brooklin (just North of Whitby and 20 min from Port Perry). They are expecting it to double in size in the next 4-5 years, from it's current 30k, to 60k. My GF grew up there when it was all farms. Just a short 30 years ago and th pop was 1,500.
Believe currently the GTA is growing by 100,000 per year.That means every year an additional 50,000 new units need to be supplied (assuming just two people)....
The cycle of people growing up, moving out is beyond broken.
Seniors and the issues they are having...Sounds good to move to the country and retire away from it all.
They needs services, social lives, ability to walk to this/that, survive winter without going bat ship crazy etc.
great article on that a week/two ago, and the problems are already starting in suburbia ( not enough for them, too far to this or that) etc.
JBen, it's been more than three years now and we still haven't managed to meet for that "pop". LOL.
One day soon I hope!!!
Anyway, we can discuss the matter forever and still not find the answers we seek.
There are numerous - endless really - angles to look at the issue(s).
Rules and "cycles" are made to be broken, altered, thrown away. I am frustrated and dismayed at the way things are these days but who am I to even try and change the BIG PICTURE?
Money equals power, and those who have money are welcomed into Canada. The governments at every level want that foreign money and don't care about you, me, or our families. That's SAD beyond what words can describe.
The Town of East Gwillimbury just to the north of Newmarket was against development for many many years. All of a sudden however, the floodgates opened and thousands of homes are being built right now. It pains me to see all the wildlife displaced and pushed out of their habitat because the almighty humans are moving in with their machinery, sewage pipes and various cables and paving devices.
Who decided that it was okay to attack the land and build all these houses at once?!
Did someone somewhere get paid some big bucks to change the light to green? Maybe I am being too dark and too cynical...
Homes are being built all over the place, and formerly sleepy towns like Brooklin, Shelburne, Hastings, etc. are growing at a rapid pace. I don't mind the growth IF jobs also spread accordingly, and IF this growth is kept close to the existing highways. Then again who am I to try and talk sense into anyone? Especially if MONEY ultimately decides the outcome every single time...
I am just shy 5 minutes from the area with the car. We saw the wildlife shift all over the area, the coyotes that we hadn't ever heard or seen in our park for the past 7 years, suddenly we are seeing them now, next to kindergartner and school. My dad spotted a few of them from time to time. Sometimes in pairs or solo.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawkman
I remember that area so well as clearly as woodlots and farms, with hamlet or village sizing. now? ridiculous!! My first question was, do we even have proper utilities in short notice to such a large demand? Most of people are concerned where there was peaceful living now become more of sub urbanized.
I'm moving to Oshawa, and I had spoken with my fiance, because of my financial and job instability there is no way we can afford even past 400k mortgage. The worst part, were both in 35-40 range with a dream to own a house....... *sigh*
poltrojan, I feel your pain and I agree with everything that you have stated.
Quite sad for the displaced wildlife and everyone in the area agrees on that too.
In terms of being ready for the sudden stretch, well... they must have thought of things I am guessing! We humans are the greatest users of all resources and for all that we take, we give back a lot of pollution back to the environment. Any increase in population will mean
The urban developers and civil engineers have been at it for a long time, planning and preparing, etc., so the expansion is not entirely thoughtless. That being said if there are any glitches in the future we will sure find out about them later on!
If you wish to own real estate, there will be possibilities for you, so don't give up too easily!
Not too long ago, I remember Oshawa was very cheap and JBen mentioned this before as well. The current craziness has had an impact on Oshawa's market also, but you still have options if you think a bit outside of the box. I wish you all the best.
One agent I know suspects south Oshawa is a sleeper zone. Its old and run down hence it doesn't get the same beat down other areas do. But 10-15 years from now?
Despite my rants towards Queens Park (and some others), and that includes residents of the GTA for bringing this on themselves and everyone else. Whether thats not seeing how/why the black hole that sucks everything into it but not much comes out, or Queens park and vote buying and more...Bait and Switches and more......
Occasionally they still do the right thing. Couple years ago they brought in legislation to force municipalities to start revitalizing run down areas and/or building up, before building out.
Hell Ms Wynne is finally starting to "see the light"...Of coarse we all know why she is finally....and even outright admitted it for that matter. Do we all remember "ORPP" have we all we all forgotten so fast? Well I guess when your seeing your retirement golden nest egg go up 30% a year.........
~25% off Hydro because gosh gee it's not fair. And it's not fair that small town Ontario pay absolutely stupid delivery charges/higher rates feeding the beast.
~A hundred million, wow so nice of you Ms Wynne (the same amount wine sippers in NoTL got) to start, finally start laying some pipe and trying to get Nat gas to more people...Only 20 years too late but hey, "thanks for nothing"
But jobs?
Economic activity?
/crickets
The amount of new housing going on, it just plain nuts. I drive into Whitby/Oshawa about once a week, its a war zone. How many years will it take before supply begins to meet demand. No idea
Frankly we have sooooo many problems, who the help knows, when or how...One thing I am fairly certain about, if the province doesn't start "spreading it around", it's inevitable. Its exactly what caused the fall of Rome, its exactly why Marie Antoinette lost her head, and as with most things we are about 15 years behind the US.
/points at the powder keg on a slow burn for the past 20 years...The US
/points at the Mid West and Rust Belt
/Points at the US electoral Map and the big cities and wealth, which looks exactly like Ontario.
/points at soooooooooooooooooooooooo much anger and unrest
/points at the Donald
Hawkman, found the article I referred to about the problems seniors are having, as if they to, don't already have enough on their plates.
Soaring Hydro
Soaring taxation
Soaring grocery bills
Soaring fuel bills ( Carbon Taxes)
Soaring land taxes thanks to this insanity and MPAC
and more
Bloody greedy, short sighted politicians and more....
Not sure if this might help you as an agent but Im thinking it can.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/...ticle20399431/
Interesting read JBen.
I don't want to live that long myself. Sometimes I wonder if all the stress has been worth it to make it THIS far - LOL.
Anyway, You and I sound alike sometimes. Too many problems you say and I agree. Some are beginning to see the "light" and it's just blinding. Always better to look away, and worry about the hockey scores instead, or which beer is on sale this week...
Next door was listed at 775k and went almost on the first to the open house. I thought it was way over priced but....Quote:
Originally Posted by JBen
JB, the loonie short deal went well. Had a meeting yesterday with some folks about a business deal. They are bearish and their numbers sucked on their EBITA. Business is way down and those they supply are hurting on revenue,.
I read where consumer confidence is the lowest since 2009(remember that abortion?) which further supports what the meeting yesterday indicated. Morneau's right hand man predicts a mess with the loonie at .62 from late 2017 and the BoC in between 1) a bind to try to raise rates due to Yellen @ the Reserve, 2) and a BoC raise putting the mortgage market and homeowners debt ratio/load in a tailspin.
I suppose exports would grow if oil goes up, but then the US rig count just eats that gain up.
Jr sure has a hold of a banger with the fuse lit and nowhere to toss it.
On top of that I'm told he is cutting funding to mental health since he increased funding to Africa's program, or lack of......
Yep interesting times and curiouser and couriouser.......
I really, really try hard not to read stats anymore. Its like getting a text message ding a ling, looking at my phone and seeing my Exs name. Blood pressure rises, knots in my stomach, claws on a chalkboard.
Did read a few the other day.
Ever wake up in the morning, and in every direction you see a sign in a square around you that says "Warning, minefield' and your smack in the middle?
Well thats kind of how I feel about things. There are paths out, but any misstep and it could just blow to kingdom come and back. The Donald scares the hell out me, not because I loathe him in the way some loathed Harper or we utterly detest Wynne. But because he's a moving mine.......and just off his freezing rocker enough he could do almost anything. Jr at least is "predictable".
Wynne, the unions, the shortsighted GTA, etc.
Just butt ugly and thats all there is to it. No escaping it, it is what it is.
Not sure what the BoC is going to do, no clue. If they dont, it should devalue, good and bad in that. If they do they run the risk of putting some braking pressure on enemic growth ...and.... tipping it over, pushing people into places, no differently than Wynne and policies here are pushing people into "Energy Poverty" ( funny how fast everyone has forgotten these are the same people she was soooooo worried about, she sold the gta on Orpp) and once it starts the momentum could take things where no-body here wants it go..
No one, not even Buffet can predict the future, and any winds can blow. And she is just ripe to blow, sky freeking high
Wonder what the crunch is now? Many are still struggling with high debt. 2 years after this post in 2019 Canadians were already in some serious troubled times. We kicked the can down the rd while increasing the cost of living. The bank of Canada just announced that mortgages will be 20 to 40 percent more by 2026. They said the old low interest over the past decade is a thing of the past and these new higher rates will be the new normal. It's part of the new transition they said. Our government also used the pandemic as an opportunity to put more of a burden on Canadians.Quote:
Originally Posted by trimmer21
Add in the price on carbon to force us to go green they already said if they make it unaffordable we will make the switch to green energy. Just like smoking make it unaffordable to make you quit.
When our government is making it more expensive to live I see where they get we will own nothing and be happy. Soon Canadians will be making some difficult decisions. Anyone who purchased a home in the last 3 years can expect not to be able to afford their home. Words of wisdom from the bank of Canada that will be ignored by many.
Sucks but our finance minister sits on a board that predicts just that. Hahaha.
Her friends think we will own nothing lol.
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Nobody ever said that the situation will get better....only worse. When household debt-to-income ratios have reached 70% of disposable income,within the next 6 months,shyte is about to get very real for millions of the "trendy entitled" Gen Y and milleniels who thought they knew everything.
I'm sure you remember rates of 18-19% in the early 80's. At the current rate money is still essentially free for those who have the desire to work harder and fore go instant gratification for future reward. I truly believe Canadians don't have an affordability issue but have a spending problem. An insatiable appetite for living beyond their means and a desire to do less for more compensation is the problem.Quote:
Originally Posted by fishfood
Put in today's inflation price and it's about the same at 17 in reality.Quote:
Originally Posted by finsfurfeathers
What was the average price of a home in the early 80? 75 thousand dollars vs 6% at average 780 thousand a mill plus near the city. I'd rather pay the interest in the 80s on a much lower loan lol. Don't let the media fool you in thinking other wise . Just like our fake job reports of huge numbers of jobs paid by the taxpayers but hey its a job.
Our mortgage debt is at 107% of the gdp the usa fell and collapsed at 100% in 08 they now stand at 75%
When we build a society of our house is our wealth what happens in a collapse? There goes everything when it collapses.
This is what they want as our own government makes living even more not affordable for Canadians in their best interests for Canadians.
They still haven't mentioned the cost of the transition but we are about to witnesses it in the decade.
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Amen, I want this, I want that, just put it on the CC. a lot of people running around with thousand dollar phones and all the other non essential stuff they claim they can't live without. Kids with phones, no need for that. Expensive communications packages, no need for that either. But, those that splurge beyond their means will learn to eat hot dogs and cornflakes for a long time. Do I care for them, nope.Quote:
Originally Posted by finsfurfeathers
No, I say your housing inflation is created by fools thinking they can afford something far beyond their means, never taking into account possible interest increases. You pay the price and make everyone else think they can do it too. Oh I need 5 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms in a 3K square foot house. No you don't, self entitled stupidity is what I call it. I grew up in a moderate sized house, and raised my kids in one too, no one suffered, no one died. They learned well and are far ahead of the crowd that's so far in debt you can't reach them wit a lazer light.Quote:
Originally Posted by fishfood
Agreed, it's all like monopoly money until things get tough. Now these days the parents bail them out so the spending continues. I never had that safety net so learned to live within my means.Quote:
Originally Posted by finsfurfeathers
Ah the church of FFF. Gladly accepting tithe just send me your infoQuote:
Originally Posted by Fisherman
That may be true,but,it'll be very short-lived at this point. Parents are getting to the thin edge of the wedge,too.Quote:
Originally Posted by dean.f
I think many should take the warning and downsize while they still have time. If thier struggling now , Later is going to be even worse.Quote:
Originally Posted by Fisherman
The worst part is our government is actively funding housing investments with our pension plan, helping drive up the price while they complain about supply and demand lol. But then again they are again just another partner more money investments into a you know who group partner lol. Weird. Haha.
.
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As another reference a new study shows most Canadians think they are getting a better deal when the price is in pounds lol. Too funny don't price it in kilos or it's over priced and to expensive. HahahaQuote:
Originally Posted by finsfurfeathers
This is basically the same thing. Our wages hasn't increased 20 x since then.
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I remember the rates from the 1980's and I was 16 in 1985. I use to get like 10% on my savings account. My Dad's mortgage was about 4 points lower as he was an employee and a manger. It was still tough back then. My Dad's part time job was playing Poker at the Kinsman Club, he was pretty good. Good enough that it paid for my siblings and I to have swimming lessons, Scouting, girl guides and a few others.
Dad still plays poker to this day age 76.
Canada has the largest mortgage debt in all the g7.
Bank of Canada pointed out people who purchased from 2020 to 2023 have more credit card debt then those who purchased from 2017 to 2019. Using more credit to pay they're bills.
All the banks have set billions combined to cover the bad credit loans. That they predict will fall.
As our government makes life more expensive to force you into making a transitional moves and putting in mandates that drive up the cost living. Not sure what they are thinking, when they sure as heck know many are struggling to make ends meet for many many years.
In my opinion it's all by design and is the cost of the transition. . What investment firm holds 120 billion in us real-estate through various investment groups? It's not the banks lol again it's just another conspiracy with the people who will own everything and the one who will own nothing. Yeah those people lol.
Our government funded those bidding wars in the best interests of Canadians I'm sure.
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I'll just put this here how blackstone and our pensions work together. How much of the billions went into gobbling up the the Canadian real estate?
Again part of the group that predicts we will own nothing and be happy.
https://www.cppinvestments.com/publi...-pension-plan/
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I think the vast majority should shred their credit cards until their debts are paid off. Some people just can't wrap their head around how much interest they're paying. Then again, I don't care, mines at zero.
It was much better in 2005.
one better....don't even have oneQuote:
Originally Posted by Fisherman
Only problem with that I have 0 credit history.
Should of seen the bank go crazy when I applied for a mortgage. With zero history they didn't want to give me a mortgage, but with a 60% down payment in cash they couldn't decline either. Had to get approval from "Head office" on a preferred client bases.
The fastest way to an "850" Beacon Score is a credit card with a low limit that gets used regularly over a one year period and paid off in full every month that earns the CC company ZERO in interest. It gets flagged by their algorithms and makes credit managers effin' insane.
Been my strategy all along! Ha! Earn rewards and good credit.Quote:
Originally Posted by trimmer21
I was surprised to notice the interest rate was going up to 22% on my card, I couldn't imagine running in the red at that price!
Data suggests that millions of Gen Y and millennials do on a regular basis out of sheer ignorance and sense of entitlement. They're about to learn their lessons the hard way.Quote:
Originally Posted by dean.f
Funny story with 1 bank: they sent me a notice saying that they would remove my line of credit as I hadn't used it for about 20 years. I took out $150 from the LOC and then paid it back 24 hours later. It cost me about 2 cents interest but the cost to them had to be more for management. My credit rating got knocked down 20 or 30 points for a few months but I thought it was hilarious.
John
No credit cards for me either. It definitely doesn't help with the credit but hey that's okay me. My wife has great credit why do we both need it lol.Quote:
Originally Posted by finsfurfeathers
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